The San Francisco 49ers, fresh off a bye, travel to Tampa Bay to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as -5.5 point favorites in Week 10 action. Some sportsbooks have the point spread set at 49er -6. Oddsmakers set the total in this game at 49.5.
The Bucs have lost three games in a row and four of their last five contests, but the losses have all come vs. quality opponents (Falcons x2, Ravens, and Chiefs). Without Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, the Bucs have gotten tight end Cade Otton more involved with positive results.
Keep reading to see how I'm approaching this game from a betting perspective.
49ers vs Buccaneers Odds Week 10
As of November 5th at FanDuel
49ers vs Buccaneers Picks Week 10
49ers O13.5 1H points (-130)
This game features a massive rest advantage for the 49ers who last played on October 27. The Bucs last played on November 4th and, not only are they on a short week because of Monday Night Football, but that was also an emotional and grueling overtime game.
I expect the rest will help the 49ers offset the early kickoff on the East Coast and they'll come out swinging with a fresh offense. Kyle Shanahan is a master at scripting the first 15 plays so I wouldn't be surprised if the 49ers got seven points on the opening kickoff. The 49ers know how important this game is and they'll be fired up for it.
Last season, Brock Purdy sliced this Tampa Bay defense up for 333 yards passing and three touchdowns (no interceptions) on 21-of-25 passing. I'm expecting another big day from Purdy with his supporting cast getting healthier by the day.
When this line first came out, I bet the moneyline at -240, but wouldn't bet it over -270.
49ers vs Buccaneers Prop Pick
George Kittle +145 anytime TD
George Kittle +1000 1st TD scorer
The Bucs defense has given up the third most yards to tight ends (64.8) and the 5th most touchdowns/game (.5) according to our NFL Team Defense Report.
Tampa Bay has given up monster games to tight ends this season including Travis Kelce last week (14 rec., 100 yards), Kyle Pitts (91 yards and two touchowns), and Mark Andrews (41 yards, two touchdown) the last three weeks.
George Kittle has been on a rampage with six touchdowns in his last six games.
49ers vs Buccaneers News
The big news to monitor this week is the potential season debut for 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey who has been out with Achilles tendinitis in both legs. McCaffrey was back at practice Monday and is on track to return, but setbacks are possible as 49ers fans hold their breath.
San Francisco wide receiver Jauan Jennings was also back at practice and his return would be huge for a 49ers team that lost Brandon Aiyuk earlier this season.
49ers vs Buccaneers Betting Trends
- Tampa Bay is 10-5 (66.7%) vs. the spread in their last 15 games as underdogs
- San Francisco is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games
- The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Francisco's last 10 games
- San Francisco is 13-7 SU in its last 20 games
- San Francisco is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games against Tampa Bay
- The total has gone OVER in all 6 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games
- Tampa Bay is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games at home