The Bears go from Jayden Daniels' hail mary to underdogs against the Cardinals in Week 9.

Chicago is a 1.5-point underdog at Arizona, with the Cardinals sitting at -118 on the moneyline at BetMGM. I'm fading Keenan Allen in this matchup, but still think the Bears can pull off an upset win:

Bears vs Cardinals Odds Week 9

As of October 30th at BetMGM

Bears vs Cardinals Picks Week 9

Bears Moneyline (+100)

The Bears lost a heart-breaking game to the Commanders last week on a last-second heave. But, they're actually playing pretty good football these days. Before the Washington loss, the Bears won three-straight games by a total of 51 points.

In a head-to-head matchup against the Cards, I think Chicago is the better team than Arizona. The Bears rank well ahead of the Cardinals in expected record, point differential, and Net EPA per play. As well, I think Arizona's struggle to contain the pass is perfect for Chicago. The Bears have faced two bottom-10 passing defenses this season (Carolina and Jacksonville) and beat both teams by over 15 points. The Cardinals have allowed the sixth-most passing yards in football this year.

The only fear I have is the Bears' inability to close out games. All three of Chicago's losses this year have come by less than a touchdown. The Cardinals, on the flip side, have wins over the 49ers, Chargers, and Dolphins by one or two points this year, showing an ability to get the win when it matters. But, as long as the coaching doesn't get in the way of talent in this game, the Bears should win.

Bears vs Cardinals Prop Pick

Keenan Allen UNDER 46.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Keenan Allen was supposed to be Caleb Williams' safety net. But instead, he's been pretty irrelevant to Chicago's attack.

In his five games this season, Allen hasn't racked up over 45 yards in a single game, averaging 32.2 per season. For a guy that was supposed to be a catch machine, he's caught under 50% of his targets in a majority of his games this year.

I understand why Allen's line is still above 40 this week, because Arizona's passing defense is one of the worst in football. But, the Bears' offense has enough weapons that they can stop trying to force the ball to Allen. Last week he just two of seven targets. With Rome Odunze, DJ Moore, and Cole Kmet all deserving the ball more, I expect Allen to slide down Chicago's offensive pecking order and go UNDER this yardage line this week.

Chargers vs Browns Betting Trends

• Keenan Allen has one touchdown in his last eight games (His UNDER 0.5 TDs is -381 at BetMGM)
• The OVER has hit in eight of the Cardinals' last 11 home games
• The Cardinals are 6-2 against the spread in their last eight games as underdogs

These betting trends are courtesy of Outlier's NFL Insights: