It's time to break down Buccaneers vs Falcons odds for Week 5's Thursday Night Football contest.
The sportsbooks have the Falcons as slight home favorites, but I like Baker Mayfield and the Bucs to upset in Atlanta.
Let's take a look at the latest Bucs vs Falcons odds and my best bets for this Week 5 matchup.
Buccaneers vs Falcons Odds Week 5
As of September 30 at FanDuel
[fanduel:FanDuel-2399814]
[nfl_tnf_bet_25_get_5_tb_vs_atl_:BET99-2374158]
Buccaneers vs Falcons Picks Week 5
Buccaneers +1.5 (-105)
I think we can chock Tampa's Week 3 loss to the Broncos up as a fluke. In the other three weeks they're 3-0 with a +38 point differential over the Eagles, Lions, and Commanders — all three playoff hopefuls. They're a legit good team that's been a betting darling for a while now, covering the spread in eight of their last 11 games.
The Falcons, on the other hand, are pretty mediocre. They're a negative expected points added per play team with a -8 point differential and a 2-2 record — as the kids say, mid.
Atlanta can play close games but there's no reason they should be favored against respectable competition, and the record backs it up. The Falcons are 2-10 against the spread in their last 12 games as favs and 3-7 straight up in their last 10 as favs. Both of those stats were provided by Outlier betting trends. So, with the Bucs as slight dogs in this one, I'll take Tampa.
Buccaneers vs Falcons Prop Pick
Bijan Robinson OVER 24.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
I think the Bucs can pull out a win or cover in this one, but that doesn't mean I won't bank on a day from Bijan Robinson.
For the second-season in a row, Tyler Allgeier is eating into Robinson's carries. Good think I'm banking on BRob's receiving yards. Robinson is averaging 3.75 receptions per contest and 33.8 rec yards per game this season. He's gone over this yardage line in three of four games.
The big key for me here is Tampa's linebacker play. The Bucs have really struggled to stop running backs in the passing game this year, allowing the second-most RB air yards in the NFL (243).
[fanduel:FanDuel-2399814]
[nfl_tnf_bet_25_get_5_tb_vs_atl_:BET99-2374158]
Buccaneers vs Falcons News
There aren't many storylines to monitor ahead of this TNF battle, but here are a few key injuries to check in on ahead of kickoff:
- Bucs S Antoine Winfield JR.
- Bucs OT Luke Goedeke
- Falcons OT Kaleb McGary
Buccaneers vs Falcons Betting Trends
- The Falcons are 2-10 against the spread in their last 12 games as favorites
- The Falcons are 3-7 outright in their last 10 games as favorites
- The OVER has hit in six of Tampa's last nine games against bottom-10 defenses
- The Bucs are 8-3 ATS in their last 11