The New Orleans Saints opened up as a 2-point favorite over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a Week 6 contest with the Over/Under total in this game set at 45.5. As soon as everyone saw Saints QB Derek Carr go down in the 4th quarter of the Monday night game, a RIVER of money started to flow the other way. Which is why the Bucs are now a 2-point favorite and the total has dropped all the way down to 42.

We do have history for this matchup of NFC South rivals from last season. In the first 2023 matchup, the Bucs (+4.5) posted a 26-9 road win and the total went UNDER 41.0. The rematch in Tampa found the Bucs (-2.5) coming up on the short end of a 23-12 score against the Saints. The total was listed at 41.5 and was an easy UNDER. 

Looking ahead, the Bucs will host the Ravens on Monday night while the Saints have a short week and will host the Broncos on Thursday.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints Odds Week 6

Odds as of Oct. 8 at FanDuel

Buccaneers vs. Saints Picks Week 6

Buccaneers -2.5 (-115)

Obviously, this handicap is mostly about New Orleans QB Derek Carr and his status. Carr has been one of the iron men at the quarterback position, averaging 16 games per season since breaking in with the Raiders back in 2014. Carr went down in the middle of the 4th Q against the Chiefs with an oblique injury and was fighting to get back in. He asked the staff if there was anything they could do to get him back in, kinda like a 'cut me Mick' from the original "Rocky" movie, but it was a no go.

The Saints turned to Jake Haener, the kid from Fresno State, and it was not pretty. Haener was just two of seven for only 17 yards. That's a 2.4 yard average per throw and I can jump further than that. If New Orleans is forced to go with Jake, then the line will obviously jump a few points toward the Bucs. Depending on how high the line goes will temper our bet.

If we're talking QBs then lemme throw some Baker Mayfield numbers at you. We loved us some Baker back in the day when he was slinging in Norman for the Sooners. Specifically, his senior year which was EPIC (285 of 404 for 70.5%, 4,627 yards, 43 TDs, 6 INTs) and resulted in the Heisman Trophy.

Baker had one good year in Cleveland then fell into a black hole with the Panthers and Rams, posting an ugly 2-8 record. Something in the water down in Tampa revived his career and he led the Bucs into the playoffs with a 9-8 record last season. Mayfield has been even better so far this season, completing 110 of 153 (71.9%) for 1,164 yards with 11 TDs and only 2 INTs.

But Ecks, Tampa's pass defense was absolutely DESTROYED by Kirk Cousins (42 of 58 for 509 yards and 4 TDs) last week, so how you gonna make money? Well two thoughts. Even if Carr plays, he AIN'T gonna be 100% and if he throws for over 200 yards, I'll eat my Todd Bowles bobblehead. And if it's the kid Haener, at 2.4 yards per pass, the Saints will lucky to get to 150 air yards.

There is also the rest issue. The Bucs are luxuriating with 10 days rest coming off the loss to the Falcons, while the Saints are on a short week off the Monday nighter. So as long as the spread does not jump over five points, we're gonna get in the kitchen with Baker. If the number climbs over five, we're still Baking but would not use as much dough and will turn down the oven a few degrees.

Tampa Bay vs. New Orleans Prop Picks

Spencer Rattler Over 0.5 Interception (-165)

If I tell you Rattler is gonna get rattled by the Tampa defense, would you be mad at me? This is his first NFL start and if you look back at his college career, he played in 42 games and threw 32 INTs. Gimme OVER for the cash.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints Betting Trends