After back-to-back losses, the Iowa State Cyclones (-8.5 at FanDuel) welcome the Cincinnati Bearcats to Jack Trice Stadium with the total set at 53.5 points

Looking back to last season when these two Big 12 teams matched up. The game was at Cincinnati, but the Bearcats (-4) lost to Iowa State 30-10. The Over/Under total was 42.5 and went low.

Cincinnati vs Iowa State odds

Odds as of Nov. 13 at FanDuel

Cincinnati vs Iowa State pick – Week 12

Iowa State -8.5 (-112) at FanDuel

Matt Campbell had Iowa State on one sweet run, winning seven in a row to start the 2024 campaign. Then the bottom fell out the last two weeks, with losses to Texas Tech (23-22) and Kansas (45-36). The Cyclones are still sitting at 7-2 and while the College Football Playoff is probably a distant memory, a decent bowl game is still on the table. They have dropped out of the top 25 even though they have a better record than Louisville (6-3), LSU (6-3) and South Carolina (6-3).

Let me give you a closer look at last season's 30-10 Iowa State win at Cincy. Rocco Becht was under center for the Cyclones and had a solid but not spectacular game, hitting 15 of 25 for 241 yards with 2 TDs and no INTs. State had just 123 yards on the ground in that game but a wicked defense held the Bearcats to only 10 points.

Now the question is, why two straight losses after starting 7-0? Well, Rocco, has struggled the last few weeks. He was dynamic against Kansas last week (24 of 37 for 383 yards, 3 TDs), but not so much against Texas Tech and UCF. Against Tech, he was just 22 of 38 (57.9%) for 299 yards and 2 TDs. Against UCF, he was WAY off, completing just 20 of 46 (43.5%) for 274 yards with 1 TD and 2 INTs. The problem has been on the ground where I-State only managed 78 yards against Kansas. They need to find the magic that they had against UCF when they gobbled up 237 yards on the ground.

More LEGOmetrics for you as it relates to Cincinnati's 5-4 record. That 5-4 sounds okay and one more win will make Cincy bowl eligible, but that could be a problem. After this week's matchup, they go to Kansas State (7-2), one of the best the Big 12 has to offer and the No. 16 team in the College Football Playoff Rankings. Then they close out the season with TCU (6-4) at home. So 5-4 could easily turn into 5-7. And Cincy's 5-4 record has been built with wins over Towson (5-5), Miami-Ohio (5-4), Houston (4-5), UCF (4-6) and Arizona State (7-2). Not exactly the cream of the college football world.

Me and my wallet are looking at the Cyclones but have to refer to the meteorological charts. We suggest that the size of the bet is not gonna be Cyclonic, but rather more of a Water Spout type wager. For those that do not study meteorology, it means that we would ask you to play Iowa State at 3/4 of your normal wager.

Cincinnati vs Iowa State betting trends