The New York Jets host the Indianapolis Colts as 4-point favorites in a matchup of two teams who are competing with each other for the last wildcard spot in the AFC. Oddsmakers have set the total for this game at 44 in a matchup of two veteran quarterbacks.
It might sound strange that the 4-6 Colts and 3-7 Jets have playoff hopes, but because the last wild card spot is held by the 5-5 Broncos with eight weeks left, both teams are clinging to hope.
The Jets are coming off a humiliating loss to the Cardinals, while the Colts enter after getting pushed around by the Bills.
Keep reading to see how I'm approaching this game from a betting perspective.
Colts vs Jets Odds Week 11
As of November 13 at Caesars Sportsbook
Colts vs Jets Picks Week 11
Colts +4 (-110)
The Jets defense ranks 27th against the run according to FTNFantasy's defensive DVOA numbers and I think Jonathan Taylor will be able to gash this Jets defense enough to keep this game close. With four points, there might be a backdoor cover opportunity for the Colts if they get down early.
Javon Kinlaw, one of the Jets starting defensive tackles, tends to get pushed around like a shopping cart in the run game. He owns a 47.7 run defense grade according to PFF.com and a strong Colts offensive line should be able to create lanes for Taylor.
Sure the Jets are at home, but I couldn't give them more than .5 points for home field advantage when the boo birds might be louder than the fans cheering after what they've witnessed this season.
I'm expecting this to be a close game between two teams in desperation mode, so I'm taking four points with a Colts team which, prior to last week, hadn't played a game this season decided by more than one score.
Colts vs Jets Prop Pick
It's a little too early in the week for a full compliment of player props for this game, so check back here to see my favorite option for the Colts vs. Jets contest.
Colts vs Jets News
Jets' left tackle Tyron Smith left last week's game with an injury and didn't return. Reading the tea leaves, it's looking like Smith won't suit up for this game and that's good news for a Colts defense that is playing better the past few weeks since DeForest Buckner returned.
The Jets also claimed center Connor McGovern off waivers from the Saints this week. McGovern is a solid pass blocker who has played 369 snaps at center so far this season.
Keep an eye on the health of Colts' left tackle Bernhard Raimann who left last week's game with a knee injury.
Colts vs Jets Betting Trends
- Jonathan Taylor has gone over 81.5 rushing yards in five of his last six games according to Outlier
- Indianapolis is 2-4 SU, but 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis' last 5 games
- NY Jets are 1-6 SU and ATS in their last 7 games
- The total has gone OVER in 8 of NY Jets' last 11 games against Indianapolis
- NY Jets are 3-6 ATS in their last 9 games at home