Betting on the Indianapolis Colts used to be straight forward. Indy's coaching staff believes Joe Flacco is the man to lead them back to the glory days. The Colts drafted Anthony Richardson fourth overall in the 2023 NFL Draft. But, after a loss to the divisional rival Houston Texans, in which Richardson chose to remove himself from the game for a play because he was "tired", ageless wonder Flacco has been named the Colts starter.
So how does Flacco taking over under center affect betting on Indianapolis? And how can you profit when betting on the Colts? Let's dive in.
Flacco vs Richardson Betting Statistics (Last 10 Starts)
*Flacco came in to lead the comeback win over Pittsburgh after Richardson was hurt.
Colts head coach Shane Steichen stated that Joe Flacco "gives us the best chance to win right now" earlier this week. Closing the door on the Anthony Richardson experience just 10 starts into his career is a bold move. Although, the reigning NFL Comeback Player of the Year has seen it all in the NFL, and is far better at protecting the football than his counterpart.
Richardson's raw statistics aren't pretty. He sits dead last in adjusted expected points added, QB rating, and completion percentage in the NFL this season. Additionally, his 48.7 PFF grade sits 51st among all quarterbacks. Plus, his 5% turnover-worthy play rate is the third highest in the league. He's thrown for just four touchdowns with seven interceptions, and ranks dead last in completion percentage (44%) and QB rating (57.2) in the NFL. In summary, it hasn't been pretty.
Flacco's statistics this season are a small sample size as he's started two games and played in four. However, he's fourth in the NFL in EPA among quarterbacks who have taken at least 100 snaps this season, trailing only Josh Allen, Jayden Daniels, and Lamar Jackson. Not bad company. He's also tossed for seven touchdowns with just one interception. Flacco remains "elite" as he ranks 14th in adjusted yards per attempt (7.1), and fifth in air yards per attempt (8.9). That bodes well for Colts speedsters Josh Downs and Alec Pierce.
One of the largest differences between Flacco and Richardson is that over their last 10 starts, books are heavily underrating the veteran's ability to generate offense. Flacco's totals are over a point under the sportbooks' projections when Richardson takes the field, but he's guided his team to the over more than his young counterpart in this sample size. Intriguingly, both quarterbacks have performed well ATS going 7-3. Savvy bettors quickly moved to back the Colts as underdogs for Sunday Night Football against the Vikings after hearing the news, moving the line down to five points after the Colts opened as seven point underdogs.
How to bet on Flacco & the Colts
While Indianapolis sits a 4-4, they've been a spread bettors dream as a league-best 7-1 ATS. As such, every one of the Colts games have finished within six points. With their four losses coming by a total of 14 points.
Head coach Shane Steichen is a phenomenal playcaller. Plus, the Colts lead the NFL in both PFF pass and run blocking grade. That will give Flacco plenty of time to sit in the pocket and pick apart opposing defenses.
Giving Flacco even more support, Jonathan Taylor averages 4.9 yards per carry and is now healthy. The former Wisconsin standout has racked up over 100 rushing yards in three of his last four games. Expect that continue as Steichen aims to keep defenses off balance.
Additionally, receiver Josh Downs has hit his receiving yardage prop in four of six games this season. He smacked the over against the Steelers when Flacco took over, and in subsequent games against the Jaguars and Titans. Downs stands to be the veteran's favorite downfield weapon, in the same vein as former favorites Torrey Smith and Jacoby Jones. In fact, the former third-round pick owns a 26.5% target share (8th in the NFL), with nine catchable targets per game with Flacco under center. I like the idea of targeting Downs' player prop overs before the books catch on.
Likewise, with the stellar play of the Colts road-grading offensive line in front of him, I'm back Indy to win at least nine games at plus-money. With the NFL's seventh-ranked remaining strength of schedule, and winnable contests against the Patriots, Broncos, Titans, Giants and Jaguars down the stretch, Indianapolis is set to creep up on the rest of the AFC South. With both the Texans and Jaguars reeling, I'm throwing a unit on the Colts to win the division at +275 odds. Long live elite Joe.