This Dolphins vs Bills game should be a lot more exciting with Tua Tagovailoa back at QB for Miami. But even with a healthy Tua, sportsbooks still have the Bills as 6.5-point favorites and -275 on the moneyline.

But, what I really think this Allen vs Tua matchup is going to give us is plenty of points. I'm looking at the OVER 48.5 (-105) for this matchup. Check out my Dolphins vs Bills odds breakdown below:

Dolphins vs Bills Odds Week 9

As of October 28th at FanDuel

As of Monday, FanDuel had the best Bills spread and moneyline odds and best OVER odds, by a pretty significant margin. Obviously shop around, but if you're wagering on any of those markets FanDuel was the best bet at the time of my handicapping.

Dolphins vs Bills Picks Week 9

OVER 48.5 Points (-105)

In eight games this season, the Bills are averaging 28.75 points per game. Miami's scoring average is a lot lower, but this team is now totally different with Tua Tagovailoa back at QB — I'm not considering the Skylar Thompson/Tyler Huntley days in this handicapping at all. With Tua back last week, Miami put up 27 points and the game against Arizona totalled 55 points.

Earlier this season, the Bills and Dolphins played to a relatively low-scoring 31-10 game. But, that 41 total points don't tell the whole story. There were 34 points scored in the first half of that contest, before Tua got hurt, putting it on pace for 68 points. After Tua got hurt, there were just seven more points scored.

When Josh Allen and Tua are both healthy, these teams almost always play in shootouts. In the last five meetings between Miami and Buffalo, the point total has average 54 points. They've gone OVER this 48.5 point mark in the last three meetings at Buffalo, too.

Dolphins vs Bills Prop Pick

Amari Cooper UNDER 48.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

When Amari Cooper came over to Buffalo, most people (including I) expected him to be the clear WR1. But, that doesn't seem to be the case. In two games with the Bills, Cooper has just five catches on seven targets for 69 yards. Khalil Shakir, Dalton Kincaid, and Keon Coleman all saw more targets and receptions than Cooper last week. Dating back to his days with the Browns, Cooper has gone OVER this 48.5 yards mark in just three of eight games this season.

The Dolphins' passing defense is also sneakily one of the best in football right now, too. They've allowed the fourth-fewest receiving yards to WRs this year, allowing just 121 total per game.

Dolphins vs Bills Betting Trends

• The Dolphins are 1-8 against the spread in their last 10
• The Bills have won five-straight against the Dolphins
• The Dolphins are 2-6 (straight up and ATS) in their last 8 game against top-10 defense
• The UNDER has hit in seven of Miami's last nine games

These betting trends are courtesy of Outlier's NFL Insights: