The New England Patriots opened up as a 2-point favorite over the Miami Dolphins in a Week 5 contest with the Over/Under total in this game set at 36.5. Even before the Fish played Tennessee on Monday night, there was quite a bit of cash coming in on Miami and we had a switch of favorites to the Dolphins -1.5. After the Fish lost to the Titans, the Pats swung back to a -1 point fav. The total has not moved off of 36.5

We do have history for this matchup of AFC East rivals from last season. In the first 2023 matchup, the Dolphins (-2) posted a 24-17 road win and the total went UNDER 46. The rematch in Miami found the Fish (-7.5) swimming past the Patriots 31-17. The total was listed at 46.5 and went high by just a hair. 

Looking ahead, the Patriots will host the Texans while the Fish get a bye.

Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots Odds Week 5

Odds as of Oct. 1 at FanDuel

Dolphins vs. Patriots Picks Week 5

Patriots ML (-118)

Changing the lyrics on a famous song, New Englanders are singing, 'where have you gone Tommy Brady? Our Patriot nation turns its lonely eyes to you. Woo, woo, woo.' Tom Terrific took his six Super Bowl rings to Tampa in 2020, got No. 7, then scored a GINORMOUS contract to sit in the broadcast both every Sunday. Nothing has been the same. In the four years without Brady, the Pats made the playoffs only once and posted an UGLY overall 29-38 record. 

And with Jerod Mayo taking over for Bill Belichick, ugly is still the operative word. New England is 1-3 SU and 1-2-1 ATS. But things are anything but sunny in Miami. The Dolphins limp in with a 1-3 straight up record and 0-4 against the spread. With Tua out, the Fish turned to Tyler Huntley and he turned into CHUM for the Titans. Huntley completed 14-of-22 for only 96 yards and did not find the end zone. In four years with the Ravens, he threw for 8 TDs but was picked 7 times.

For those folks that like to delve into the history books, the Dolphins made some history this past Monday night. The Fish were the first team since the 2017 Cleveland Browns to not hold a lead through the first four games of the season. Miami’s only win – a 20-17 Week 1 victory against the Jacksonville Jaguars – came when Jason Sanders kicked the game-winning field goal as time ran out. Just in case you're interested, the Patriots are only 0.5-point favorite to win the 1st quarter. After fighting tough defenses against the New York Jets and San Francisco 49ers, the Pats could be a little taste of honey vs. a Miami D that's giving up over 25 points per game.

Jacoby Brissett is slinging for New England, and 2024 has been just kinda EH for him. He has hit on 61-of-101 for 536 yards with 2 TDs and 1 INT. With Brissett against Huntley, there's a chance that I might watch reruns of the Great British Baking Show from season one. The tension in the tent is palpable and if you don't like Paul Hollywood, then get off my page.

Only kidding of course because you need the winner. Looking bad against a bad team, like Miami did against Tennessee, is brutal. Looking bad against a good team like the Patriots did against the 49ers, is almost acceptable. Not gonna bring my entire stack of chips to the table here, but will spray a handful on New England.

Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots Betting Trends