We've got a battle of middling teams as the Dolphins and Rams meet on Monday Night Football for Week 10.
With Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp both back and healthy, the Rams are 2.5-point favorites at BetMGM. But, the Dolphins are also getting healthier too, with Tua now set to start his third-straight game for Miami and the Dolphins' offense looking better with him at the helm.
Can the Rams deliver as -138 moneyline favorites? I'll break down these Dolphins vs Rams Week 10 odds below:
Dolphins vs Rams Odds Week 10
As of November 6th at BetMGM
Dolphins vs Rams Picks Week 10
Rams -2.5 (-105)
The Rams are healthy and dealing, with Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp both back in the fold. When both receivers start, the Rams are 3-0 straight up and have covered the spread every time. The Rams have also turned into a dominant home force, winning seven of their last eight games in Los Angeles.
I also don't think my outlook on the Dolphins has changed much, despite the return of Tua at QB. The Dolphins are still 1-3 this season with Tua at QB, with the only win coming narrowly over a terrible Jaguar squad. I know this takes account the time when Tua didn't play, but all my go-to metrics also favor the Rams clearly in this one. The Dolphins are a bottom-seven team in football in expected record, point differential, and Net EPA.
Another key trend from Outlier that gives me confidence in this one: The Dolphins are 1-7 against the spread in their last eight games as dogs.
Dolphins vs Rams Prop Pick
Demarcus Robinson OVER 26.5 Yards (-110)
Unless Puka Nacua gets himself ejected for throwing a punch this week, we will see both Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp suit up for the Rams this week — a rarity for Los Angeles this season. Just twice this season we've seen both top receivers play for the Rams. You'd think a WR3 like Demarcus Robinson would see his production drop when Nacua and Kupp play, but that's just not the case. In those two games, Robinson has put up 42 and 35 yards, besting this 26.5 yard mark with ease.
The Dolphins do have a solid pass defense, but Robinson can go OVER this mark with just one or two catches. It's low enough that I'm taking the OVER for sure.
Dolphins vs Rams Betting Trends
- The Rams are 7-1 in their last eight home games
- The UNDER has hit in seven of the Dolphins' last 10 games
- The Dolphins are 1-7 against the spread in their last eight games as underdogs
- Tyreek Hill has gone UNDER 77.5 Rec yards in five of his last six road games (he's -119 to go U77.5 at BetMGM this week)
These betting trends are courtesy of Outlier's NFL Insights: