When looking at the game logs for the Memphis Grizzlies and Detroit Pistons, bettors won’t find many Ws. Both teams are riding losing streaks coming into this contest with the Pistons dropping five of their last six games and all three during this current road trip. The Grizz, on the other hand, were the latest victims of the James Harden Show in Houston and have lost seven of their last nine (1-8 against the spread).  

The Grizzlies opened as 4-point favorites (since moved to -6) with a low total of 198.5.

Pistons’ Road Woes Make Them a Tough Sell to Cover

Starting 2019 off with a loss, Detroit has plummeted in the standings after a hot start. The Pistons are 16-19 SU in 35 games and wrapped up December with a 4-12 SU and 5-10-1 ATS record in 16 games. Despite the struggles, they remain a playoff team in the Eastern Conference as an eighth seed.

The Pistons’ defense has been hit-or-miss, allowing 109.9 points per game to rank 14th, but the offense is where they’ve taken a nosedive. Detroit ranks 24th in points per game, dead last in the league in field-goal percentage and 29th in three-point percentage. One of the reasons for the offensive decline is because the Pistons have almost zero depth behind Blake Griffin and Andre Drummond. The Pistons rank 21st in the NBA in points scored by their bench players (34.6) and given the degree of scoring in the NBA these days, if your team only has three players averaging double digits in points per game, it’s a recipe for disaster.

I’m fading the Pistons in this one because of how poorly they’ve played on the road (2-8 SU and 4-6 ATS in their last 10 away games) and the fact that they’ve been beaten by an average of 17.3 points per game on this current road trip. If bettors are looking for a counter, it’s worth noting that Detroit is 2-1 ATS in three games when on the second game of a back-to-back.

Grizzlies Defense Will Be Their Key To Victory

Although the Pistons are awful on the offensive end, the defense by Memphis should make it even harder for Detroit to get a basket. The Grizz rank second in the NBA in points allowed per game and fifth in opponent field-goal percentage. However, Memphis does allow opponents to shoot a great percentage from deep (36.1 percent, ranked 24th) and while I mentioned earlier that the Pistons suck at shooting threes, that could be a weakness to be exploited if Detroit wants a chance to win.

While I sing the praises of the Grizzlies defense, it hasn’t been strong enough when facing the good teams in the NBA. Memphis is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games vs teams with winning records but luckily for the Grizzlies, the Pistons do not fall into that category. In their last two games against the Celtics and Rockets, the Grizz had fourth-quarter leads but proceeded to blow it and eventually lost both by double digits.

I still think the Grizzlies win this game handily because I think their defense will suffocate the Pistons into taking bad shots and Detroit will be gassed from playing the night before in Milwaukee where it got stomped by 23 points.

Low Total Makes the UNDER a Risky Play

The total opened at 199 and while the latest trends point to an UNDER, it may be too low to take the UNDER. The UNDER has hit in five of the Grizzlies’ last seven games but the average combined score from those games was 201.7 points per game. If the Grizzlies’ defense shows up, this UNDER could still hit as the Pistons have scored less than 100 points in four of their last six games and the UNDER has hit in 12 of their last 17 games.

My Pick Is…

To take the Grizzlies to cover the spread. I think the Pistons are terrible and watching them drop all three of their road games on this trip doesn’t inspire confidence in their ability to cover, let alone win the game.