Buzzer beaters, Cinderella stories, and pretending to work while obsessively checking basketball scores. The thrills of March Madness are upon us.
Whether your team has a ticket to the Big Dance or you’re just excited to lay the smack down on your boss and colleagues in an office pool, this article has you covered on everything you need to know before filling out that bracket.
How To Fill Out A Bracket
Strategy for filling out a bracket is a bit like being in a poker tournament. An extremely “tight” player (i.e. never taking risks) may not finish in dead last place, but they’re also not as likely to win it all. Similarly, luck will run out for a player who is ridiculously “loose” (constantly raising and never folding) and their shot of winning is also reduced.
Like with poker, the key to winning your bracket is taking calculated risks (upset winners) when it makes sense to do so based on conviction and which situations present value. Also, just like at the poker table, making your decisions based on emotions is bad business, so Rule #1 is to disregard any collegiate allegiances you may have.
Correlate risk to your pool’s size and makeup
If you’re playing in a large pool with thousands of other people, then it’ll be necessary to take more risks to finish on top. However, if you’re in a tiny office pool with a couple dozen people, a “chalkier” path of picking a few more favorites is a more optimal strategy. Just keep in mind, when considering which teams are favorites and which are underdogs, the seeds can’t alway be trusted.
Each year there seems to be a handful of First Round matchups where oddsmakers set the team with a worse seed as the favorite. In 2023 for instance, two No. 10 seeds (Utah State and Boise State) opened as favorites over No. 7 seeds, while two No. 9 seeds (West Virginia and Auburn) were favored over No. 8 seeds.
A pool with a large number of diehard sports fans or seasoned bettors will be more likely to recognize the team with the worst seed has a better chance to win (according to bookmakers) compared to a pool with few sports fans who will just assume that the better seeded team is the safest bet. Because it can often be beneficial to zig while other people zag in these contests, take an assessment of your your competition and predict what their tendencies might be.
For instance, if your pool takes place in an office in Columbus, OH more people are likely to select Ohio State in the First Round (compared to a pool in another state) even if they’re underdogs. If 80% of the pool will be on Ohio State in the First Round even though they’re underdogs or close to a pick ‘em, it’d be prudent to fade the Buckeyes.
If you like the idea of zigging while others zag, many bracket hosting websites like ESPN post the results of which teams their participants have picked. If youre conviction meter is on the fence and you’re in a larger pool, fade the public.
It’s also important to consider the point system used for your contest. Most pools award higher points for wins in later rounds, and some even award bonus points when you select underdog winners.
Use basketball analytic sites
While analytic websites like KenPom.com and BartTorvik.com have become increasingly popular in betting circles, they are still foreign concepts to most sports fans who don’t gamble regularly, so they can give you a big edge in many pools. These websites can help you make a more informed decision about what kind of pace teams play at, how their offensive and defensive has performed throughout the season (adjusted for strength of schedule), and who has the advantage on the boards.
Injuries muddy the water
Momentum is an important factor to consider when deciding who to advance in your bracket. Just ask last year’s San Diego State squad that finished the season 10-1 and were able to ride that wave, as a No. 5 seed, all the way to National Championship game.
If teams have a similar seed, record or analytics but one is playing on all cylinders and the other is limping into the tournament, It’s often wise to go with the hotter team. Just beware, coaches are known to prioritize the Big Dance and rest star players with injuries in conference tournament games so they’re 100% for the tournament.
In other words, wins and losses aren’t always the best measure of how well a team is playing. In 2024, Kansas lost by 20 to Cincinnati in the Big 12 Tournament but that loss is less disturbing when you consider that star players Hunter Dickinson and Kevin McCullar Jr. sat out.
Second Round Drama
The second round is where chalkier brackets go to die. While it may seem intuitive to advance all four No. 2 seeds to the Sweet 16, it’s important to note that a quartet of No. 2 seeded teams has only made it that far twice in the last 26 seasons.
Since 1997, No. 2 seeds who finished the season 6-4 or worse, have gone 8-9 in the second round. While forecasting into the second round, try to predict potential cupcake matchups because, since 2001, 2nd round double-digit favorites are a ridiculous 49-2.
Below is a chart of how each seed has performed in the 2nd round since 1996. Take note that the No. 10 and No. 11 seeds aren’t as far below .500 as some might think.