Penn State is a gigantic 17.5-point favorite when they host Illinois in a Big 10 tussle. Both teams are coming off wins last week, but the level of the competition was, yea, you know what's coming, CUPCAKERY! The Nittany Lions (-48.5) fed sad sack Kent State a 56-0 bagel in State College while the Illini (+9) went to Lincoln and pulled off a 31-24 upset against Nebraska.

Illinois vs Penn State Odds

Odds as of September 24 at FanDuel

Illinois vs. Penn State pick — Week 5

Illinois vs Penn State Pick: Illinois +17.5 (-112)

Numbers don't lie but they can mess with your head so ya gotta read the numbers very carefully before opening your wallet. Take Penn State's 56-0 annihilation of Kent State last week. The numbers were STUPID. Nittany QB Drew Allar hit on 17-of-21 for 309 yards with 3 TDs and no INTs.

PSU's rushing attack was lethal, gobbling up 309 yards. But, and there's always a but. This all came against the Kent State Golden Flashes who are anything but golden. More like rusted cooper.

Kent is 0-4 so far this season and was 1-11 in 2023. You know the word…CUPCAKERY. These Big 10 rivals played last year in Champaign and State (-14) rolled to a 30-13 victory. Allar was solid in that game, not great, completing 16-of-33 for 208 yards with no TDs and no INTs. However, Allar ranks as the No. 2 QB in the nation with a rating of 218.34. Only Jaxson Dart of Mississippi is better at 219.44.   

Gotta tell you a little about the other arm, Luke Altmyer. He was rocking the party at Nebraska, hitting on 21-of-27 for 215 yards with 4 TDs and no INTs. And Altmyer has 10 TDs against ZERO INTs so far this season. And if you're wondering how Luke and the Illini will handle the 106,572 at Beaver Stadium, they bypassed all the noise at Memorial Stadium in Lincoln with a sweet W last week in front of over 90,000.

So, how do you assess Penn State's 3-0 record against a trio of cupcakes? West Virginia 2-2, Bowling Green 1-2 and Kent State 0-4. We give the Lions an incomplete. Last season, State crushed Delaware 63-7 then went to Illinois and posted a 17 point W (3013). Just sayin'.

Pretty sure that Illinois ain't gonna win this game, but that 17.5 point spread is calling my name. And one of the main reasons is Bret Bielema's spread record on the road since taking over the Illini. They have covered 12 of the last 15 away from home and you can't quibble with an 80% hit rate. Bank of Benj is wide open for this double digit dog.

Illinois vs Penn State Prop Pick

Luke Altmyer O.5 TD's (-220)

Looking at Illinois QB Luke Altmyer OVER 0.5 TD's at -220 from the folks at FanDuel. All Luke has to do is throw one and we collect. Should be a breeze to the Bank of Benj because he has 10 TDs in his first four games.

Illinois vs Penn State betting trends