LSU and Florida, two SEC rivals on the wrong end of blowouts last weekend, will try and take their frustrations out on one another Saturday in the Swamp. The Tigers opened as a 4.5-point road favorite over the Gators, hoping to get starting quarterback D.J. Lagway back from the hamstring injury that kept him out last week.

Both teams have lost two straight—and the most recent defeats were ugly. LSU was hammered by 3-point favorite Alabama 42-13 in Baton Rouge, while Florida was blistered 49-17 by 22-point favorite Texas in Austin. The blowout in Texas ended a five-game run of ATS victories for the Gators, who were forced to use a walk-on, third-string quarterback in the game.

LSU vs Florida Odds – Week 12

As of November 12

LSU vs Florida Picks Week 12

Lagway is the key for Florida—when he plays, the Gators can be very competitive, as they showed in beating Kentucky, taking Tennessee to overtime, and pushing Georgia into the fourth quarter. Lagway returned to practice on Monday, according to Florida coach Billy Napier, who told reporters “we feel good about what we saw.” But Napier stopped short of saying Lagway was 100 percent, according to 247 Sports, leaving the QB’s status for Saturday in doubt.

LSU had won six straight, covering the latter three, before falling by wide margins in back-to-back games against Texas A&M and Alabama. The Tigers have sunk to 13th in the SEC in defense, and the lack of a real rushing threat has left them rather one-dimensional on offense. LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier is the SEC’s second-leading passer, but he’s also thrown a whopping 11 interceptions—including five in his last two games.

The Tigers were burned last week by Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe, who rushed for a career-high 185 yards. Could Lagway be that effective, two weeks removed from a hamstring tear? That’s a lot to ask. But the signs continue to be positive for the Florida quarterback, who went through pre-game warmups at Texas and returned to practice this week. Assuming he plays Saturday, the Gators are very capable of keeping this close.

LSU vs Florida Week 12 Pick: Florida +4.5

Let’s be honest: neither of these defenses is great. LSU went UNDER last week, because Alabama shut down the Tigers’ offense. That shouldn’t be the case Saturday against a Gators’ D allowing 27 points per game. 

Florida has gone OVER in three straight, and we like more of the same this week in Gainesville.

LSU vs Florida Week 12 Pick: OVER 55

LSU vs Florida Prop Pick: Kyren Lacy Anytime TD (-135)

Lacy is Nussmeier’s favorite target, leading the Tigers with 46 receptions for 697 yards and nine touchdowns. He scored LSU’s lone touchdown against Alabama, marking the second time he’s found the end zone in four weeks. Against a Florida defense that’s allowed 14 passing touchdowns so far this season, Lacy is a solid bet to find paydirt once again.

LSU vs Florida News

Aidan Warner, the walk-on transfer from Yale who was forced into action at Texas last week due to Lagway’s injury, struggled to make throws and completed just 12 of 25 attempts for 132 yards and two interceptions. 

Florida has zero quarterback depth with Graham Mertz out for the season with a torn ACL, so Warner would be the option again this week if Lagway can’t go. On the LSU side, starting left guard Garrett Dellinger has been out two weeks with a high ankle sprain, although receiver C.J. Daniels returned from a leg injury to make three catches against the Tide.

LSU vs Florida Betting Trends

• LSU is 1-2 ATS on the road this season.
• LSU is 2-4 ATS as a favorite this season.
• Florida is 4-2 ATS in SEC games this season.