The Orlando Magic are hoping that a trip south of the border will help carry them to victory for just the second time in December as they tip off against the Chicago Bulls at Mexico City Arena in Mexico. Orlando is also looking to put an end to its five-game losing slide vs Chicago dating back to April 2017. The Magic are 5-point favorites in tonight’s contest with the total Sportsbook at 209 points.
- The total has gone UNDER in each of the last 11 meetings between Chicago and Orlando.
- Chicago is 3-13 SU and 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in seven of Orlando’s last 10 games.
Magic’s offense not matching their defense
Orlando finds itself in a bit of a tailspin, dropping seven of its last 10 games, including its last three in a row. Much of the struggles are the result of a brutal schedule from late November into the early stages of December, including a six-game road swing with stops at Denver, Golden State and Phoenix that was preceded by a visit from the Toronto Raptors. Additionally, the ongoing three-game skid has come against three current playoff teams. The defense has still been playing well, though. On the season the Magic are surrendering 107.9 points per game, which is the eighth-fewest in the Association, while over their last 10 games that number has dropped to 105.2 ppg.
The big area of concern is the offense, which couldn’t afford to score less than it was on the year, but it has. The Magic are scoring the fifth-fewest points per game at 104.6 on the season and in their last 10 games that has dropped to 99.6 ppg, the third-fewest in the NBA. Orlando has the fourth-slowest pace of play in the league, which has led to the 12th-fewest shots per game, while also giving up the ninth-fewest shots against per game.
Bulls offense can’t get anything to fall
Chicago has only topped 110 points once over its last six games and has only scored more than 100 points twice over that span. Since the start of November, there haven’t been many positives to talk about for the Bulls as they have just four wins over that span, with an average losing margin of 15.81. Most recently, they are on a two-game skid, falling to surging Boston 133-77 last Saturday and to high-flying Sacramento 108-89 on Monday. As you probably noticed in those scores, Chicago is having tremendous difficulty putting points on the board. The Bulls rank dead last in the league with just 101.8 points per game and this has dropped to 97.5 ppg over their last 10 games.
Meanwhile, unlike the Magic, the Bulls’ defense isn’t turning any heads, giving up 112.9 ppg, which is the seventh-most in the NBA. One of the biggest issues defensively is Chicago’s poor ball possession, as it gives up 16.8 turnovers per game, which is the third-most in the NBA, and it is allowing 18.5 points per game off turnovers, the sixth-most in the Association.
Is the UNDER the bet to make tonight?
Chicago and Orlando are two of the lowest-scoring teams in the NBA and Sportsbook has the total Sportsbook at 209 points. The total has gone UNDER in each of the last 11 meetings between Chicago and Orlando with an average combined score of 192 and only twice have they gone OVER 209 points in their last 30 contests. Meanwhile, the Bulls have gone UNDER in 12 of their last 17 games and the Magic have gone UNDER in seven of their last 10 games.
Additionally, over the last 10 matches for both teams, Chicago ranks dead last in the league by scoring just 97.5 ppg, while Orlando averages the third-fewest ppg at 99.6. Lastly, the Bulls have played 10 games against teams that are currently ranked in the top 10 in fewest points allowed per game and they averaged 96.1 points in those matches.
My take on Chicago vs Orlando
I like the UNDER 209 points for this contest in Mexico City. You have to go back to January 2015 to find a game in which Chicago and Orlando went OVER 209 points, a span of 14 games, and they have an average combined score of 192 in their last 11 meetings. Additionally, with both teams on the road tonight, the Magic and Bulls rank in the bottom five of the Association in points scored per game on the road, with Orlando averaging the fifth-fewest at 102.8 and Chicago scoring the second-fewest at 100.9.
Neither team does a good job grabbing offensive rebounds, limiting their second chances and potential points, as the Bulls average just 7.5 offensive boards per game, the fewest in the NBA, and the Magic grab the fourth-fewest at 8.9. Lastly, although Orlando has been on a downward spiral recently, its defense has been playing well, allowing the seventh-fewest ppg over its last 10 games at 105.2, which I think will smother Chicago and carry the UNDER.