Though upsets of a No. 1 seed at the hand of the No. 16 seed have been more prevalent in recent years, don’t expect that to be the case in 2024. After all, No.16 seeds have just a 1.32 winning percentage in the NCAA Tournament. Until last year, those underdog number 16s had been in trouble. Fairleigh Dickinson’s unfathomable upset over the Purdue Boilermakers wasn’t the only 16 seed success last year. Though the other three matchups all ended in at least a double-digit defeat, three of the four 16 seeds covered the spread.
They’ve historically been overmatched, but No.16 seeds have covered the spread in seven of the past 12 opening round matchups with No. 1 seeds. But keep in mind, the No.16 has finished within 10 points of a top seed on only 10 occasions since 2001. Though they have little hope of victory, an ATS wager on the No.16 isn’t always a bad play.
Predictably, as the top four teams in the college basketball AP Poll, Houston, UConn, Purdue and North Carolina are the one seeds in the 2024 NCAA Tournament, and are near the top of the National Championship odds.
2024 1 vs 16 Seed Matchups
Check out our analysis of all the 1 v 16 seed matchups.
East: No. 1 UConn vs No. 16 Stetson
West: No. 1 North Carolina vs No. 16 Wagner
Midwest: No. 1 Purdue vs No. 16 Grambling
Seed vs Seed Stats: 1 vs 16 | 2 vs 15 | 3 vs 14 | 4 vs 13 | 5 vs 12 | 6 vs 11 | 7 vs 10 | 8 vs 9
What Seed Has The Recent ATS Edge?
While 1 vs 16 first-round matchups have primarily been blowouts historically in March Madness, bettors have found little solace in backing the higher seed recently. Since 2014, No. 16 seeds have covered the spread 20 times in 36 games with 2014 and 2023 being banner years for 16 seeds as they covered three of four games.
Close Calls
Prior to Virginia’s 2018 debacle, the closest a No. 1 seed had ever come to being upset by a No. 16 seed came in 1989 when Georgetown edged Princeton 50-49. Two years later, Michigan State topped Murray State 75-71, and Purdue held off Western Carolina 73-71 in 1996. The top seed has captured 25 national titles overall dating back to 1985. Over the past 16 years, a No. 1 seed has won the NCAA championship 12 times, including Kansas’ 2022 triumph.