For the first time in nearly 30 years, the No. 5 seeds both won and covered the spread in all four March Madness opening round matchups last season. Unusually strong fifth-seeded teams may have something to do with it, as Duke, Miami, San Diego State and Saint Mary’s were the No.5’s.

Having said that, No. 12 seeds have had success as March Madness bracket busters historically. 12 seeds have an impressive 35% winning percentage in the first round. Interestingly enough, No. 12 seeds have at least one victory in 17 of 22 NCAAB Tournaments since 2000. Two years ago, both UConn and Iowa fell as No. 5 seeds. While Oregon State knocked off Tennessee 70-56 in 2021.

However, it’s important to keep in mind 12-seeds are just 14-26 SU and 21-18-1 ATS over the last 10 tournaments (40 games).

2024 5 vs 12 Seed March Madness Matchups

The vaunted No. 12 seeds are represented by James Madison, UAB, Grand Canyon, and McNeese State in this year's March Madness opening round.

Seed vs Seed Stats: 1 vs 16 | 2 vs 15 | 3 vs 14 | 4 vs 13 | 5 vs 12 | 6 vs 11 | 7 vs 10 | 8 vs 9

Why Should You Bet On A No. 12 Seed Over The No. 5 Seed?

Over the last 14 tournaments, No. 12 seeds are an impressive 33-22-1 against the spread while also going 24-32 straight up. In 2019, three No. 12 seeds won SU with just Auburn winning as a favorite but failing to cover.

For college basketball bettors, it is not so much whether you are going to pick an upset involving a No. 12 seed every year, but how many you are picking. In 2017, Middle Tennessee took out Minnesota although the lower-seeded Blue Raiders closed as the betting favorites.

In 2016, two No. 12 seeds survived and advanced when Yale and Little Rock upset Baylor and Purdue, respectively.                                   

Will A 12 Seed Win March Madness?

No. 12 seeds seldom advance deep into the NCAA Tournament, with just two teams making it as far as the Elite Eight. But out of 52 No. 12 seeds that have upset No. 5 seeds in the first round since the tourney field expanded to 64 teams in 1985, 14 of them (25 percent) have followed that up with another victory.

In 2021, Oregon State advanced to the Elite Eight before getting knocked off by Houston. The Beavers making it to the Elite Eight marked only the second time that a 12 seed was able to achieve that feat. The other was the Missouri Tigers back in 2002.