Flash back to August 2017, when we witnessed one of the biggest boxing events – especially from a betting perspective – as Conor “Notorious” McGregor made the crossover to professional boxing to collide with the then-49-0 Floyd “Money” Mayweather.
The event had a live gate of over $55 million with over 14,000 fans in attendance and it had the second-highest pay-per-view buy rate in the U.S. and Canada at 4.3 million buys. Could we be in store for a rematch that could be bigger than the first?
Online sportsbook [Sportsbook not available for your region] has released odds on a potential rematch between Mayweather and McGregor, making the former five-division champion, “Money,” a -1000 favorite with the UFC two-division champion, “Notorious,” a +600 underdog.
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Odds as of June 11 at [Sportsbook not available for your region]
Odds Analysis
The odds aren’t too dissimilar to the Sportsbook line for the first time these two were set to fight. Originally, Mayweather opened as a -2250 favorite with McGregor coming back as a +950 underdog. Many bet on the Irishman, which brought the line down with the American closing as a -600 fave and Conor closing at +400.
Those who wagered on McGregor inhaled sharply when they saw his well-placed uppercut land in the first round – one of the cleanest shots the pro boxer’s chin ever experienced. However, in the end it was the crafty vet who was able to turn it on in later rounds and stop McGregor in the 10th round.
Despite the Sportsbook line leaning heavily on Mayweather, I’d anticipate a sharp buy on McGregor once again and the closing odds could be tighter than they were for the original bout.
Will This Fight Take Place and When?
Recently, McGregor announced his retirement after a bit of a feud with the UFC as he sits on the sidelines looking for a fight. Though I don’t believe the retirement is concrete, online sportsbook Sportsbook has released odds on whether the Irishman will un-retire by the end of 2020, with “No” listed as the -250 favorite and “Yes” coming back at +170. On McGregor’s retirement post on Instagram, Mayweather showed up in the comments probing for a rematch.
Late in 2019, UFC president Dana White and Mayweather were seen sitting next to each other courtside at an NBA game. White said the two came to an agreement for a bout in 2020, though the details are scarce on whether it would be a boxing match or a UFC fight and who knows who the opponent will be. Of course, many know that White wants to create a boxing company called Zuffa Boxing.
At this point, we don’t know what McGregor will do in 2020 and we don’t know who his next opponent will be. In all likelihood a trilogy bout with Nate Diaz will take place early in the fall, followed by a rematch not with Floyd but with Khabib Nurmagomedov in early 2021. That said, McGregor, Mayweather and White are all very wise businessmen and the moment they have you thinking one way, they pull the rabbit out of their hat and go another way.
How Would The Rematch Play Out?
There is no denying that McGregor has some very good boxing skills and even caught the masterful Mayweather off guard a few times. However, conditioning and pacing has been the Achilles heel for “Notorious” throughout his career, while “Money” is known for going into later rounds without a bead of sweat on his brow.
Quite simply, if Conor wants to score a monumental victory over the 50-0 boxer, he would have to stop him early. I’m not sure he is capable of doing that and the more likely outcome is Floyd using his defensive crab method until McGregor slows and then picking up the tempo for another late-round stoppage or decision win.