Bad news. Conor McGregor pulled out of his fight vs Michael Chandler at UFC 303 due to injury. But when the fight is rebooked, we'll have odds & picks for everyone to enjoy.
When odds were last available (June 1), McGregor was a -125 favorite over Chandler, who came in as the +100 underdog. We've got a complete betting preview with bets below, assuming the odds stay the same for when this fight takes place later in 2024.
McGregor vs Chandler Odds
Odds as of May 21
The McGregor vs Chandler odds have "Mystic Mac" as a narrow favorite. Our odds calculator gives McGregor a 55.56% chance of winning, and a $100 bet on him pays out $180. Chandler gets a 50% implied win probability and a $100 bet pays out $200.
How Chandler Wins
I’ll never diss Chandler’s style because, credit to him, he’s a man of his word – he always delivers exciting fights. His 2-3 UFC record isn’t representative of his skillset either, as he’s only fought the best 155ers in the world. The odds suggest he has a strong chance of winning vs McGregor, and I’m inclined to agree.
In Chandler’s last fight vs Dustin Poirier at UFC 281, Iron Mike had the most success when he shot for a double-leg takedown, landed it, and wrestled his opponent. McGregor has improved his defensive wrestling over the years, but if Chandler can get close enough to negate the Irishman’s reach advantage (maybe he stuffs him against the cage) and power him to the ground, then he’s in the perfect environment for a victory.
Of course, there’s always the chance Chandler punts on all strategy and strikes like hell. That’s fine for him – he can win that way, too – but he’ll need to keep his guard up, mix in low kicks, and try to avoid gassing out as he did in the Poirier fight.
How McGregor Wins
Mystic Mac is known for his quick feet and lightning hands, but we saw some of that agility fade in his last two fights. McGregor looked very flat-footed in his loss to Poirier at UFC 257, and Dustin crushed him with calf kicks before knocking him out. The rematch at UFC 264 didn’t go much better for the 34-year-old, who took a beating on the feet, and then broke his ankle as Round 1 ended.
Conor needs to be smarter with his shots in this fight (bring back the counter-left that slept Jose Aldo!). Chandler will attack the same way Poirier did at UFC 264, and McGregor needs to be ready. “The Notorious” must bounce on the feet, throw knees, elbows – whatever it takes – to maintain some space from Chandler and stop the bout from devolving into a heavy-hands competition. Conor is a sniper, while Chandler is a bulldozer. McGregor’s movements and his strikes have to be clean and precise for him to win.
McGregor vs Chandler Picks
Make no mistake, this is an epic fight. First, I’ll say it’s very unlikely this fight will go the distance. It’s hard to say where the rounds total will open, but I’d be pretty comfortable banging the UNDER 2.5 rounds (this could change when the value comes out).
As for the winner, my gut tells me Chandler will get it done. McGregor is (was?) the more complete fighter, but Chandler’s strength and pressure will be too much for Mystic Mac to handle, especially after yet another long layoff and a lower-body injury. I’m going with Iron Mike by knockout.