The heat gets turned up on Billy Napier’s hot seat from the very beginning, as a Florida head coach coming off two straight losing seasons opens as a home underdog to a hated in-state rival.

That’s the reality for the Gators, a 2.5-point underdog to the Hurricanes on Saturday afternoon in the Swamp. These are rough times for once-dominant Florida, whose 4-8 ATS mark last season was among the nation’s worst. The Gators covered just twice last season against teams that finished with a winning record, and now here comes a Hurricanes outfit that picked up the best quarterback on the transfer market.

Miami vs florida Odds

Odds as of August 27

miami vs florida Picks – Week 1

It wasn’t pretty last season in Gainesville. The Gators gave up tons of points, and over their final five games cratered to 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS. They lost their two top defensive players, end Princely Umanmielen and linebacker Scooby Williams, to Ole Miss and Texas A&M respectively. There’s lots of talent on the offensive side of the ball at Florida but if the Gators can’t stop anyone, it’s going to be another long season in the Swamp.

Miami added quarterback Cam Ward, who passed for 6,700 yards and 48 TDs in two seasons at Washington State, to an offense with a strong offensive line and great receivers. The defense brings back key players from a unit that allowed 22.8 points per game last season. The question for the Hurricanes continues to be game management, given that coach Mario Cristobal is better known for his recruiting than his decision-making on the sideline.

The difference in expectations is evident in the season win totals, 9 for Miami and 4.5 for Florida. And yet, it’s not like the Gators’ roster is bereft of talent. Of course, they need to shore things up defensively. But Graham Mertz was very steady at quarterback last season, the receivers are fantastic, and there’s depth at running back. At home, feeling a sense of urgency, against a Miami team that’s chronically underperformed for two decades—yeah, you can see it.

Miami vs Florida Week 1 Pick: Florida +2.5 (-105)

Yes, Florida gave up a lot of points last season, but it also scored a lot, too—enough to go OVER the total in seven of its final nine games. It was a similar story for the Hurricanes, who went OVER in six of their last eight and in eight of 13 games overall. Oh, and did we mention that with Ward behind center, Washington State went OVER in four of its last six?

Miami vs Florida Week 1 Pick: OVER 54 (-110)

miami vs florida news

Mark Fletcher, who emerged as Miami’s top running back in a 2023 campaign where he averaged over 5 yards per carry, is “all the way back” from a broken bone in his foot suffered in the Pinstripe Bowl to close last season, Cristobal said, according to Athlon Sports. Meanwhile, Florida receiver Andy Jean is expected to miss extended time with a wrist injury suffered over the summer, according to 247 Sports.

miami vs florida prop Pick: Florida +114 First Half

At home and with a veteran starting quarterback behind center, it’s natural to believe that Florida would be the unit to get off to the better start in this game. While Ward played at Oregon and Washington last season, the Swamp remains a one-of-a-kind venue for visiting teams—and one in which the Gators led both Tennessee and Florida State at the half in 2023.

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