It’s been two straight games on the tightrope for the Miami Hurricanes, who survived a late Hail Mary attempt against Virginia Tech one week and then needed a furious comeback at Cal the next. After an off week, can the Hurricanes maintain their balance Saturday at a Louisville team that’s a 4-point home underdog?

While Miami remains unbeaten overall at 6-0, the Hurricanes have dropped their last two ATS—escaping 38-34 against 17.5-point road underdog Virginia Tech, and then rallying to win 39-38 at 10-point underdog Cal. The 4-2 Cardinals have dropped their past three ATS, losing outright at Notre Dame and at home to SMU over that span.

Miami vs Louisville Odds

Odds as of October 15

Miami vs Louisville Picks – Week 8

Miami quarterback Cam Ward is among the odds favorites for the Heisman Trophy for a reason—even after a bye week, he’s still tied for the national lead in passing touchdowns and second in passing yards. Two weeks ago at Cal, he led four straight touchdown drives to pull the Hurricanes back from a 35-10 deficit in a fourth-quarter performance that will go down in Miami lore.

But Ward can’t do everything. A Miami defense that is statistically excellent has shown some real lapses that allowed both Virginia Tech and Cal to run out to big leads, forcing Ward to bail the Hurricanes out. And if Miami barely escaped against teams rated 38th and 45th respectively in the Sagarin rankings, how will they fare on the road against a team rated 22nd?

The Cardinals remain a dangerous football team averaging over 36 points per game and allowing fewer than 20. Quarterback Tyler Shough (an Oregon transfer) passed for 329 yards and two TDs in the shootout loss to SMU, and Ja’Corey Brooks is one of the top receivers in the ACC. The point spread has widened somewhat since opening at Miami -2.5, and right now it’s tough to trust the Hurricanes against the number.

Miami vs Louisville Week 8 Pick: Louisville +4 (-112)

No surprise, Miami with its high-powered offense and flair for dramatics has gone OVER the total in every game this season but one, a push at South Florida. Louisville has gone OVER in two of its last three, the outright losses to Notre Dame and SMU, and in three of five games overall against FBS competition. We’ll stick with those trends, even against the biggest total the Cardinals have faced so far. 

Miami vs Louisville Week 8 Pick: OVER 61 (-112)

*picks made as of Monday, October 14 at 12:45 pm ET

Miami vs Louisville News

Miami appears in position to get back its starting left tackle, who was injured in the season-opening victory at Florida and hasn’t played since. Hurricanes coach Mario Cristobal told a local radio station that Jalen Rivers was a full go at practice and set to play against Louisville, according to the Miami Herald. On the Louisville side, running back Donald Chaney (a Miami transfer) has been battling an ankle sprain. 

Miami vs Louisville Prop Bet: Ja’Corey Brooks Anytime TD (-130)

Among receivers in the ACC, only Miami star Xavier Restrepo is putting up better numbers than Brooks, who leads the Cardinals with six touchdowns on the season. Five of those have come over his past four games, including two each against Notre Dame and SMU. With the Hurricanes in town, expect Brooks to be a top target of Shough once again. 

Miami vs Louisville Betting Trends