The days when the Tennessee Volunteers ran the highest-scoring offense in America seem long ago. The bunch from Rocky Top hasn’t managed more than 28 points in a single game since its 71-0 pasting of poor Kent State back on Sept. 14. Now, the question: can these Vols cover a 23.5-point line against an SEC opponent, even if it is Mississippi State?

That’s the conundrum bettors face Saturday, when Mississippi State visits Knoxville. The Bulldogs are the worst team in the SEC, with wins over FCS Eastern Kentucky and UMass. But they’ve also covered three of their last four in league play, against lines of 21, 33 and 36 points. Tennessee meanwhile has failed to cover its last three games against double-digit lines, one of those at outright loss at 14-pount underdog Arkansas. 

Mississippi State vs Tennessee Odds

Odds as of November 4 from BetMGM

Mississippi State vs Tennessee Picks – Week 11

The Bulldogs may not win an SEC game this season, but they’ve been fairly competitive of late behind backup quarterback Michael Van Buren, who took over after starter Blake Shapen was lost for the season with a shoulder injury. The Bulldogs covered in Van Buren’s first career start, at Texas, and then lost very competitive games to Georgia and Texas A&M before getting strafed on defense in a loss two weeks ago at Arkansas. 

Tennessee, meanwhile, runs and plays defense and grinds out wins. The Vols are second in the SEC (behind Texas) in both total and scoring defense, and have the league’s leading rusher and touchdown-scorer in tailback Dylan Sampson. The issues is that Tennessee has become somewhat one-dimensional, sinking to 10th in the league in passing offense. Their run-and-defend strategy should be more than enough to win Saturday—but by how much?

Arkansas blew out Mississippi State behind a career day from quarterback Taylen Green. Texas pulled away behind a big day from backup QB Arch Manning. Toledo’s quarterback burned the Bulldogs for 285 yards and three TDs. Tennessee is far less reliant on the passing game, and its grind-it-out approach should give Mississippi State an opportunity to stay in the game longer and cover the spread.

Mississippi State vs Tennessee Week 11 Pick: Mississippi State +23.5

Thanks to the worst defense in the league, Mississippi State has gone OVER the total in four straight games and six of its last seven.  Tennessee, conversely, has gone UNDER in four of its last five. But this total of 61 is the highest the Vols have faced in six weeks and the highest for the Bulldogs since their opener, so the UNDER is the play.

Mississippi State vs Tennessee Week 11 Pick: UNDER 61

*picks made as of Monday, November 4 at 3:30 pm ET

Mississippi State vs Tennessee News

Mississippi State’s primary issue of injury concern has been along the defensive line, where four players—Kalvin Dinkins, Kedrick Bingley-Jones, Trevion Williams and De’Monte Russell—have all missed time recently. Tennessee backup running back DeSean Bishop left the Volunteers’ most recent game against Kentucky with a lower-body injury, according to the Knoxville News-Sentinel, and his status for Saturday is uncertain. 

Mississippi State vs Tennessee Prop Bet: Dylan Sampson Anytime TD (-1350)

Sampson has been a machine for the Volunteers, scoring a pair of touchdowns last week against Kentucky to set a new program single-season rushing record with 19. Sampson has scored a touchdown in every game this season, and has gone for multiple TDs seven times.

Mississippi State vs Tennessee Betting Trends