MLB Baseball

How are MLB Power Rankings calculated?

Our MLB power rankings go way beyond the standings and records. Updated every Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday during the baseball season, these rankings are based on a combination of schedule and statistics over a rolling 20-game period (if we're only 10 games into a regular season, we pull the last 10 games from the previous year, too).

Using all the data we showcase in our MLB betting trends, matchup reports, and stat breakdown pages, we compile a bevy of MLB statistics to create a power number for each squad. That number includes runs per game, hits, walks, and the defensive/pitching equivalents for each mark. Once that power number is created it’s combined with strength of schedule to achieve the final rating.

These are all objective, statistics-based power rankings. But, that doesn't mean I entirely agree with them. Here's how I feel about our current MLB power rankings:

My Number 1 Team in MLB Power Rankings: Philadelphia Phillies

In my opinion, our computer has the top three teams correct — Yankees, Dodgers, Phillies — but I'd simply reverse the order. The Phillies are the top team in baseball, followed by the Dodgers and Yankees, though I understand the parity.

There's no club in baseball more equipped for a World Series victory than Philadelphia. Firstly, the Phils have four legitimate starting pitchers who I'd trust to throw Game 1 of any playoff series. Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola will likely be manager Rob Thomson's top choices, but Ranger Suarez and Cristopher Sanchez are great options, too.

Then there's the offense. Bryce Harper delivered another excellent regular season (.897 OPS), as did Kyle Schwarber (.857 OPS), and we know both these sluggers have extensive track records of success in October.

Lastly, the club's bullpen is excellent. While Jose Alvarado can be shaky at times, his stuff is excellent, and a new crop of relievers like Jeff Hoffman and Matt Strahm make fine complementary pieces.

Most Overrated Team: Atlanta Braves

Decimated by injuries across the board, the Braves may not even end up in the playoffs this season. Squarely in a battle with the Mets for the final NL Wild Card, Atlanta has lost its sizzle on offense, as players like Matt Olson and Austin Riley took a big step backward from their killer 2023 seasons.

Thankfully, Atlanta's pitching staff is quite strong, which I suspect is why our computer has the Braves so high on this list. Chris Sale will win the NL Cy Young, and the Braves bullpen, led by Raisel Iglesias, is top-tier, too.

Still, there are better clubs further down this list. 

Most Underrated Team: Baltimore Orioles

Why in the world is the No. 6 team in our World Series odds ranking out in the middle of our power rankings?

The Orioles haven’t been great recently, rocking a 28-32 record since the trade deadline, but the club remains the top Wild Card squad in the Junior Circuit and rosters some of the best young players in baseball.

Anthony Santander could eclipse 45 homers, Gunnar Henderson is one of the best in the game, and Jordan Westburg and Adley Rustchman (despite a down season) make up great complementary pieces. The pitching staff has had its ups and downs, but thanks to a great offense, when Baltimore wins, they often win big. The O's have covered the runline in nearly 54% of their games, good for a whopping +16 units of profit. That's easily the most runline profit of any team in baseball this year.

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