The MLB playoff picture has really taken shape the last few weeks, but there are still games left in the AL and NL postseason races.
Here's a look at the current MLB playoff picture and a breakdown of some key teams still in contention for the 2024 World Series:
2024 MLB Playoff Picture: American League
AL Playoff Locks (Over 90%)
- Yankees – 100% via FanGraphs playoff odds
- Guardians – 100%
- Orioles – 100%
- Astros – 100%
- Tigers – 91.1%
Other AL Playoff Candidates:
- Royals – 83.9%
- Twins – 23.0%
If you're looking for a complete breakdown of current MLB playoff odds and some of my best bets to make the postseason, check out our dedicated MLB playoff odds page.
Kansas City Royals Playoff Chances
The Royals are just a pair of games up on the Twins for the AL's final playoff spot. They finish off the season with a three-game set against a Braves team also battling for the playoffs. But, there's still some things going in KC's favor. For starters, the Royals have their best three pitchers lined up to start those final games, with Brady Singer, Seth Lugo, and Cole Ragans all rested and ready to go. As well, the Braves will have other games on their mind, with a looming double-header against the Mets on Monday.
Even though the Royals' situation seems precarious, I think they're in a solid spot to make the playoffs.
Minnesota Twins Playoff Chances
The Twins have really choked this one away, rocking a 22-27 record since August 1st. Minnesota was once a playoff lock and now things aren't looking likely at all.
Injuries have certainly played a part in this Minnesota collapse, with Max Kepler, Alex Kirilloff, Chris Paddack, and Joe Ryan all on the shelf right now. But, the Twins still have a chance to save their season.
The Twins will have to play two games better than the Royals or Tigers for the rest of the season to get back in the mix. If there's one positive for the Twins, it's that they have the tiebreak over both Kansas City and Detroit, meaning if they tie either team it'll be Minnesota getting in the playoffs.
Odds Shark's MLB Resources
2024 MLB Playoff Picture: National League
NL Playoff Locks (Over 90%):
- Phillies – 100%
- Dodgers – 100%
- Brewers – 100%
- Padres – 100%
Other AL Playoff Candidates:
- Mets 77.6%
- Braves – 61.8%
- Diamondbacks – 60.6%
New York Mets Playoff Chances
At one point this season, New York's MLB playoff odds were below 10% — now they're well over 70%.
Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor carried the offensive load and the pitching has been much better than people thought for the Mets down the stretch. With big start after big start from guys like Sean Manaea, Luis Severino, and Jose Quintana, the Mets have put themselves in a position to secure a playoff spot.
The Mets' playoff chances probably rely on their starting pitching keeping things up for a few more days, especially in a end-of-season set against the Braves.
Atlanta Braves Playoff Chances
The Braves have somehow managed to keep their season alive despite the injury losses of Ronald Acuna Jr., Spencer Strider, and Ozzie Albies and Austin Riley for a while. They have a few games left to lock down a postseason spot, fighting the Mets and DBacks for the NL's final position. If there's a positive for Braves fans, the last time they lost Acuna for the entire season, Atlanta ended up earning a playoff spot and going on to win the World Series.
The Mets and Braves meet for a double-header on Monday that will likely decide this playoff race.
Arizona Diamondbacks Playoff Chances
The Diamondbacks have back-slid into the wild card race in recent weeks, but I'm still pretty confident that Arizona will secure a postseason spot. Arizona would have to be passed by both the Mets and Braves to miss the playoffs, and the DBacks have some easy games remaining against a Padres team without much to play for. I doubt San Diego starts any of their top arms, giving the DBacks a chance to secure their playoff spot for a second-straight year.