MLS Cup Odds still favor Inter Miami to win the championship at +160. And with Messi back and scoring freely it's surprising that Miami is still a plus-money favorite to win the MLS Cup.
For those searching for more value look no further than LA Galaxy who've jumped up to second on the odds board at +550.
2024 MLS Cup Odds
Odds as of October 4 at Caesars Sportsbook
MLS Cup Odds Favorite: Inter Miami
I've said it for a while now; this is Miami's title to lose. The Herons have the best record at 20-8-4 (68 points). The next best squad is LA Galaxy with 61 points.
Miami did fine without Messi with an 8-0-1 record. With him, they can be even better as we saw the GOAT bag a brace in a 3-1 win over Philadelphia in his comeback game. Since he's scored another three goals. That's five goals in five games. Magic.
Miami has already locked up the number one spot in the East and the Supporter's Shield. That's given them an easy path in the playoffs. And with star talent like Messi, Alba, and Busquets the Herons have the quality to go deep and win a title.
Getting Miami at plus money this late in the season is surprising. Jump on it while you can.
MLS Cup Odds Value Bets
While Miami is the rightful favorite, let's look at some value further down the oddsboard.
LA Galaxy
With a playoff berth locked, all eyes for LA is on that MLS Cup. They've got much to be desired defensively but offensively they're dynamic. They've got four double-digit goalscorers on the team with Joveljic (14), Chaves (14), Puig (13) and Paintsil (10). Not to forget the impact that Marco Reus is having with a goal and two helpers in three starts.
The Galaxy could easily make it out of the West and into the title-deciding game.
Columbus Crew
We know that Columbus is a good squad. Just look at their 16-9-6 record (57 points). It's the third-best record in the league. They also hold the fourth-best offensive record and the best defensive record.
We know they can navigate a Cup tournament winning this year's Leagues' Cup and last year's MLS Cup. There isn't much left for them to prove they have Cup-winning potential.
Sure, they'll likely have to pass through Inter Miami in the Eastern Conference playoffs and they lost both matchups with Miami this season. But Columbus won the xG battle 3.5 to 2.3 and held 57% of the possession even after going down to 10 men 63 minutes into the second game.
It wouldn't be a shock if Columbus dispatched Miami in the playoffs. Doing so would immediately make them easy favorites to repeat as Cup champions.
MLS Conference Winners
You can take your MLS futures one step further and bet on conference champions in the East and West.
Eastern Conference Winner Odds
Odds as of September 27 at Caesars Sportsbook
It only makes sense for MLS Cup favorites Inter Miami to also be favored to win their division. This time they aren't plus-money favs but are -125 to win the East.
Miami has the best record in the East and is destined to enter the playoffs in that top spot. In the past two seasons, the top seed in the East has gone on to win the Conference. With Miami's star power and a 16-4-4 record against Eastern Conference foes, I like the Heron's odds to win the East.
Western Conference Winner Odds
Odds as of September 27 at Caesars Sportsbook
The West is much more open than the East. The two LA clubs have the top two spots on the board. LAFC has been to back-to-back finals so their credentials can not be doubted. Remember, LAFC has a vastly superior xGD than the rest of the league at +16. The underlying numbers say that LAFC is the best team in the league.
I wouldn't blame you If you wanted to fade them and take the Galaxy. They've won three of their last five and designated player Marco Reus has been a massive presence since his addition. The German has a goal and two assists in his three games. He's also got three goal-creating actions and 13 shot-creating actions. With Marco, the Galaxy has the star power to win the West.
Last 10 MLS Cup Champions
For the fan of competitiveness, the MLS has been a dream with no back-to-back winners over the last 10 years. Sure, the Seattle Sounders have won it twice in the previous decade, but those championships were separated by three years. This is a league where any team can win in any year.
Who Has The Most MLS Cups
The LA Galaxy has been the class of the MLS for a long time thanks to nine MLS Cup final appearances and five championships. But it's been 10 years since their last title. Landon Donovan was still at his peak and Robbie Keane was still spry enough to score 19 goals when the Galaxy won their last title. It's been a while!
Teams That Have Never Won The MLS Cup
This list is quite long with 14 teams never winning the MLS Cup. But as you'll see some of these clubs are still quite young! They've got to learn to walk before they learn to win.
*One of the original 10 teams