NFL underdogs have quietly been huge moneymakers in recent times. Unfortunately, dogs haven't been nearly as profitable in this campaign. Use our underdog report to follow the underdog trends SU and ATS, as well as the most profitable NFL underdog teams to bet on.
Take a peek below for the current profitability of NFL dogs, and underdog trends to keep an eye on.
NFL Underdog Betting Trends In 2023
Through Week 18, the dogs sit at 87-183 SU on the year. Blindly betting underdogs on the moneyline is not a profitable play.
Straight Up NFL Underdog Betting Records
| SU Record | SU Win % | SU Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 111-216-2 | 33.9% | -$1,770.31 |
Against The Spread NFL Underdog Trends
| ATS Record | ATS Win % | ATS Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 155-163-11 | 48.7% | -$2,222.73 |
Oddsmakers have adjusted to underdogs' early season success ATS. As sportsbooks collect more and more data, betting on underdogs ATS has been brutal through the NFL regular season. Look elsewhere for profitable picks.
Best 2023 Underdog NFL Teams To Bet On
| Team | Underdog Record | Underdog Profits |
|---|---|---|
| Houston Texans | 7-5 | +$630 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 6-4 | +$505 |
| Green Bay | 6-7 | +$470 |
| Kansas City | 4-1 | +$441.96 |
CJ Stroud and the Houston Texans run as underdog darlings finally came to an end in the Divisional Round, as they were soundly beaten by the buzzsaw that is the Baltimore Ravens. San Francisco derailed our other playoff underdog, defeating the Green Bay Packers by a score of 24-21, and killing +390 Packers ML bettors.
However, the Kansas City Chiefs came through as road underdogs, beating the Bills' after Tyler Bass game-tying field goal went wide right. Bettors have another opportunity to bet on the Chiefs as +156 ML underdogs in the AFC Championship game.
Why You Should Bet On Road Underdogs
Everyone’s always looking for the edge in football betting. Having said that, sportsbooks have reacted swiftly to the road underdogs betting trend this season. After beginning the season on a hot streak, betting road underdogs has become a lesson in futility. Look elsewhere for profits.
| Year | ATS Record | Underdog Profits |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 95-98-4 | -$1,144.08 |
| 2022 | 85-75-3 | +$293.52 |
| 2021 | 85-73-3 | +$395.57 |
| 2020 | 82-66-0 | +$838.71 |
| TOTAL | 329-295-10 | +$434.73 |
Traditionally, NFL home teams are given a 3-point advantage on the spread. For example, if a team was a 2-point favorite at a neutral site, they’d be a 5-point fave at home. Now, most books have whittled that advantage down to 2.5 points. However, there is still a ton of value to be had when betting on road underdogs.
Remember, the public loves to bet the favorite. Thus, sportsbooks handicap their NFL matchups appropriately. However, the price variance hasn't affected road underdogs so far this season. Home-field advantage is becoming less and less of a factor in NFL games.
If you want to be more selective, here are a few teams that stand out as successful road dogs ATS so far this year:
The Best Road Underdogs ATS
| Team | Underdog Record | Underdog Profits |
|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 8-2 | +$536.37 |
| Washington Commanders | 6-2 | +$337.88 |
| Houston Texans | 5-2 | +$256.06 |
Alas, with the elimination of both Stroud and the Texans and Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers this weekend, our most profitable road underdogs have all been eliminated. That being said, road underdogs went 2-2 ATS in the Divisional Round, with both the Green Bay Packers, and Kansas City Chiefs covering the spread.