It was a rinse and repeat situation for the NFL betting public in Week 3. As I wrote about last week, one oddsmaker described Week 2 as a “bloodbath” for the betting public. Week 3 wasn’t quite as bad, but it certainly didn’t help that the five of the six biggest favorites lost outright.
To wit:
- New York Jets (-6.5) were the only big favorite to take care of business, easily beating the New England Patriots 24-3 on Thursday Night Football.
- The Cleveland Browns (-6.5, 65% of bets and 66% of money) were shocked by the New York Giants 21-15 on the road.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6, 81% of bets and 63% of money) never led in a 26-7 home loss to the Denver Broncos.
- The Las Vegas Raiders (-5.5, 79% of bets and 74% of money, including 92% of moneyline bets) were stunned 36-22 by the hapless Carolina Panthers.
- The San Francisco 49ers (-6, 64% of bets and 64% of money, including 87% of moneyline bets) lost a late 10-point lead in a devastating 27-24 loss to the Los Angeles Rams.
- The Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5, 65% of bets and 62% of money) didn’t force a single punt by the Washington Commanders in a 38-33 loss on Monday Night Football.
The public was helped by the Kansas City Chiefs (-3) holding on for a 22-17 win on Sunday Night Football against the Atlanta Falcons, including one bettor who had a $1 million wager on the Chiefs moneyline at -175 odds. But overall, it was another tough week for the betting public.
“A very solid day,” John Murray, executive director at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook said. “A lot of upsets the last two weeks. [It’s] been good for the books.”
To Murray’s point, underdogs of 5.5 points or more are now a remarkable 14-2 against the spread (+11.8 units) with 10 outright wins through three weeks. That will regress to the mean at some point, but it’s a remarkable statistic so far in this young season.
“Been a good day so far,” Tristan Davis, a senior trader at BetMGM said. “Tampa Bay was our biggest result with the New York Giants a close second. San Francisco did us a favor [as well].”
All of those upsets in Week 3 also wreaked havoc again on NFL survivor pools, as the top four most-selected teams in Circa Sports’ pool (which started with over 14,000 entries) – the Bengals, Brown, Bucs and Raiders – all lost. It also means that the most-selected team – the one that the most entrants had confidence in – in Circa Sports’ Survivor contest has now lost all three weeks.
The pool is down to a miniscule 642 entries after three weeks, by far the quickest it has ever been under 1,000 entries in the history of the contest.