We've got NRFI picks today for the first and last games of the MLB slate. At around noon ET today, the Cubs and Pirates are dialed in for a NRFI, as Paul Skenes takes the hill. Then in the later game, we get to fade two struggling aces.
See our NRFI picks today!
NRFI Pick Today: Cubs vs Pirates (-125)
This is a fortuitous meeting between the Cubs (82-51 NRFI) and the Pirates (80-52 NRFI), two of baseball's most reliable NRFI clubs. And each squad's recipe for NRFI supremacy is very simple, so let me show you. Firstly, Chicago and Pittsburgh have crummy first-inning offenses, batting .222 and .206, respectively. After that, you must pitch well in the first. The Cubbies are the best first-inning staff in baseball with a 2.57 team ERA. The Bucs are less reliable at a 4.09 ERA, but that's still enough to place them in a respectable 13th overall in MLB.
Make no mistake, I would not have outlined this matchup if the starting pitchers weren't favorable for our NRFI cause. Kyle Hendricks gets the ball for Chicago, looking for his eighth consecutive NRFI outcome. Hendricks is 16-2 NRFI on the season and has a good track record vs the top of the Pirates order. For example, Bryan Reynolds is just 7-for-36 (.194 BA) lifetime vs Hendricks with a .633 OPS.
And then Paul Skenes (13-4 NRFI) starts for Pittsburgh, as he fights to fend off Jackson Merrill of the Padres for the NL Rookie of the Year award. I have great faith in his ability to shut out Chicago, first because he carves to the tune of a 2.12 ERA in the first inning this year, and, secondly, because active Cubs hitters are just 3-for-26 off him. Skenes has a lot to pitch for, even if the Pirates are out, which boosts our chances for a NRFI today.
YRFI Pick Today: Orioles vs Dodgers (-115)
Three years ago, I'd be crazy to bet a YRFI in a game started by Corbin Burnes and Walker Buehler, but, oh, times have changed. First of all, Buehler (5-5 YRFI) has been terrible this season and even worse in the first inning. In 10 starts this year, he has yielded 11 first-inning runs, good for a 9.90 ERA. Buehler has walked eight batters to just seven strikeouts, all while opposing hitters slash .395/.491/.674 off him in the first inning. The Dodgers righty can't get any breaks, and now he faces the Orioles, who own an .847 OPS in the first inning over the last 30 days.
On the other side, Burnes rocks some excellent first-inning numbers and a 20-6 NRFI record, but I have some concerns about his performance of late. The O's ace is pitching worse than he has all season, yielding 20 runs in his last 20.2 innings (8.71 ERA). Now he faces the Dodgers, whose .852 OPS in the first inning ranks third in MLB, while their 70-62 YRFI puts them in the top three for that category.