We're back with NRFI picks today, and it's the AL's turn for playoff action. First, the Tigers and Tarik Skubal try to get some revenge vs the Guardians, while the Yankees look to make it a two-game lead at home against the Royals.
See all our NRFI picks below for today's slate of postseason baseball.
NRFI Pick Today: Tigers vs Guardians (-170)
Two words: Tarik Skubal. The Tigers ace and AL Cy Young lock delivered six scoreless innings in his postseason debut in the Wild Card round, positioning himself well for another excellent outing. Skubal delivered six consecutive NRFIs to end the regular season and added an extra one in the playoffs. He faces a Guardians order that has hit him for contact (.274 BA) but not for power (.355 SLG), leading to a subpar .653 team OPS in 62 at-bats.
Jose Ramirez has great numbers against Skubal, so the left-hander must be careful when Cleveland's best hitter comes to the dish. It's not Skubal's style, but he'd be wise to pitch around Ramirez and attack other hitters. It'll be a treacherous journey, but no pitcher in baseball is more equipped. Plus, Skubal is pitching better right now than he has all season.
The Tigers face old friend Matt Boyd, a left-handed starter who spent the bulk of his career in Detroit. Boyd was fantastic in limited regular-season outings, posting a 2.72 ERA with 10.4 K/9 in eight starts (7-1 NRFI). Only one Tigers hitter (Riley Greene, 0-for-1) has faced Boyd before, which greatly favors the pitcher and only increases our chances of a NRFI outcome.
You can see why this bet is -170, but with Skubal and Boyd going, that's still fair value.
NRFI Pick Today: Royals vs Yankees (-130)
For starters, the value on this bet is excellent. Anytime we can get a NRFI pick for -130 in the playoffs, it's worth considering. In this case, we've got the Yankees, baseball's second-best YRFI team during the regular season, scaring the oddsmakers. Let's push back with a NRFI bet.
Cole Ragans (25-7 NRFI) was reliable during the regular season and dominates the Yankees. The lefty had a great outing in the Wild Card round vs Baltimore, and active New York hitters are 2-for-21 lifetime vs Ragans. The Royals starter will bring his velo and establish a foothold early, setting us up for a low-scoring contest.
On the other side, Carlos Rodon was less reliable on the NRFI, but he, like Ragans, has some great matchup splits. Royals hitters have a massive sample size vs Rodon, but still haven't done much. KC batted just .228 against Rodon in 101 at-bats, producing juts a .641 OPS. Notably, Bobby Witt Jr. is just 1-for-6.