At long last, the ALCS is dialed in, with the Yankees taking on the Guardians. In my ALCS betting preview, I'm going to go through all the notable stats that leads me to choosing the Pinstripes to advance to the World Series, which isn't a huge surprise as they are -205 in the series price at FanDuel.
It's no surprise the Yankees are favored to win the AL Pennant. The Bronx Bombers carved through the Royals in ALDS despite an ugly 1-for-11 slump from superstar Aaron Judge. Now the Yanks face another AL Central club in the ALCS, so let's get into it.
New York Yankees vs Cleveland Guardians Series Winner Odds
| Team | Moneyline |
|---|---|
| New York Yankees | -205 |
| Cleveland Guardians | +175 |
Odds as of Oct. 13 at FanDuel
Well, we know where the value is in this series. Like the Royals before them, the Guardians are underdogs against the mighty Yanks. But before we declare New York a shoo-in to the World Series, let's dive deeper into the matchup splits and some trends from the regular season.
The Guardians' talented bullpen could be a major X-factor in this best-of-seven series. So even if New York has Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon, and Marcus Stroman, the Yanks' 'pen might be outgunned. We shall see
New York Yankees vs Cleveland Guardians Series Schedule
| Game | Date | Time (ET) | Stadium |
|---|---|---|---|
| Game 1 | October 14, 2024 | 7:38 | Yankee Stadium |
| Game 2 | October 15, 2024 | 7:38 | Yankee Stadium |
| Game 3 | October 17, 2024 | TBD | Progressive Field |
| Game 4 | October 18, 2024 | TBD | Progressive Field |
| Game 5 (If Necessary) | October 19, 2024 | TBD | Progressive Field |
| Game 6 (If Necessary) | October 21, 2024 | TBD | Yankee Stadium |
| Game 7 (If Necessary) | October 22, 2024 | TBD | Yankee Stadium |
New York Yankees vs Cleveland Guardians Series Total Games Odds
| Total Games | Odds |
|---|---|
| 4 Games | +550 |
| 5 Games | +240 |
| 6 Games | +190 |
| 7 Games | +210 |
Odds as of Oct. 13 at BetMGM
New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians Series Prediction Odds
| Series Outcome | Odds |
|---|---|
| New York Yankees 4-0 | +800 |
| New York Yankees 4-1 | +450 |
| New York Yankees 4-2 | +340 |
| New York Yankees 4-3 | +410 |
| Detroit Tigers/Cleveland Guardians 4-0 | +2000 |
| Detroit Tigers/Cleveland Guardians 4-1 | +900 |
| Detroit Tigers/Cleveland Guardians 4-2 | +750 |
| Detroit Tigers/Cleveland Guardians 4-3 | +600 |
Odds as of Oct. 13 at FanDuel
New York Yankees vs Cleveland Guardians Betting History
| Matchup | Record | Runline Record | OVER/UNDER |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yankees vs Guardians | Yankees 4-2 SU | 3-3 Runline | 4-2 O/U |
New York ran the show against the Guardians during the regular season, which is no surprise, considering how dominant the team was. The only thing worth noting is that games against the Guardians went OVER more often than not.
New York Yankees Player to Watch: Aaron Judge
I'm not going to stop harping on Judge. The Yankees take on a super-human form when he's at his best. So far, New York has succeeded despite his failures, as Big No. 99 went just 2-for-13 in the ALDS.
Luckily for Yankees fans, Judge went berserk against the Tigers/Guardians during the regular season, smacking five homers in six games with a 1.608 vs Cleveland. Judge could bounce back in a big way, and that could change the entire postseason.
Cleveland Guardians Player to Watch: Josh naylor
Baseball players have strong memories, and Yankees players won't forget Naylor's antics in last season's ALDS. Naylor homered off Gerrit Cole and taunted the Yankees starter with an animated "rock-the-baby" celebration that didn't sit well with anyone in that New York dugout. That series was fierce, and we could see a repeat of that same animosity in the ALCS.
So far, though, Naylor hasn't done much, batting .250 with zero walks and a lousy sub-.600 OPS. If he heats up and pops a few homers out at Yankee Stadium, boy, we've got a series.
Odds To Win World Series
| Team | Odds To Win World Series |
|---|---|
| New York Yankees | +165 |
| Cleveland Guardians | +500 |
Listen, I'm strong in my belief that an NL team will win the World Series. Whether that comes against the Yankees or an underdog team from the AL Central, a Senior Circuit squad will raise the trophy.
Maybe you can fade the Yanks ahead of this series, but I'm not sweet on the AL contingent.
Expert Prediction: Yankees to win 4-2 (+340)
The Yanks aren't perfect, as I've stated, but they are better than the Guardians. If Judge wakes up, as the numbers suggest, then we could see an even shorter series than six games. Either way, I envision a few clunkers from the Yankees' offense dragging them down, but the Bronx Bombers will win the pennant in the end.
There's not much value in betting the entire series price, so let's gun for a Yanks in six games bet.