Fresh off another victory over another nationally ranked opponent, the unbeaten Oregon Ducks are the clear No. 1 team in the country and the +100 odds favorite to win the Big 10 title. Saturday afternoon the Ducks are 15.5-point favorites at Michigan, which looks nothing like the Wolverines team that claimed the national title a season ago.

Oregon has covered in three consecutive Big 10 games, a span that includes beating Ohio State as a home underdog, recording its first road shutout in over 20 years, and then pummeling a top-20 Illinois squad last week. Michigan’s home squeaker over Michigan State last weekend was just its second cover of the season, and the Wolverines’ 2-6 ATS record is tied for seventh-worst nationally. 

Oregon vs Michigan Odds

Odds as of October 28 from FanDuel

Oregon vs Michigan Picks – Week 10

The traveling-two-time-zones thing has bitten just about everybody in the expanded Big Ten this season save Oregon, which punished poor Purdue 35-0 the last time it ventured east. Fresh off a three-touchdown performance last week in a 38-9 hammering of Illinois, Ducks quarterback Dillon Gabriel has returned to the position of Heisman Trophy odds leader. Since a shaky opening two weeks against Idaho and Boise State, the Ducks have found their rhythm and are outscoring opponents 219-77.

It's a very different story at Michigan, which has cycled through three different quarterbacks this season and still hasn’t found a true answer behind center. The Wolverines haven’t scored more than 28 points in a game since their season opener. One-dimensional and running short on answers, Michigan has sunk to 16th in the Big 10 in total offense and last in passing offense. The last time they played a ranked team, they managed just 80 yards through the air.

You know where this is going. Michigan is a proud program with an iconic home stadium, where they’re a home underdog for the third time this season. Oregon has covered in three straight conference games, both at home and on the road. Those trends, not to mention the differences between the programs right now, are hard to ignore.

Oregon vs Michigan Week 10 Pick: Oregon -15.5 (-110)

Michigan has gone OVER in four of its last five, but most of those totals were in the 30s as oddsmakers adjusted to the Wolverines’ anemic offense. Oregon, allowing opponents an average of 15.6 points per game, has gone UNDER in four of five. Against a Saturday total in the mid-40s, the UNDER seems the natural play here as well.

Oregon vs Michigan Week 10 Pick: UNDER 45.5 (-110)

*picks made as of Monday, October 28 at 11:00 am ET

Oregon vs Michigan News

The Ducks have now played three straight games without starting defensive end Jordan Burch, who injured a knee in practice before Ohio State and hasn’t seen the field since.  “We will continue to evaluate him and see what’s best for him, and in turn, what’s best for our team,” coach Dan Lanning told reporters in Eugene after the Illinois game. On the Michigan side, starting cornerback Will Johnson missed last week’s Michigan State game with an undisclosed injury, as did quarterback Jack Tuttle. Their status for the Oregon game was uncertain early in the week.

Oregon vs Michigan Prop Bet: Tez Johnson Anytime TD (-150)

Lost in the focus on Michigan’s offense is the fact that its pass defense is nearly as bad—the Wolverines are giving up an average of 228 yards per game through the air, 13th in the Big 10. That should free things up for Ducks receiver Tez Johnson, who ranks second in the league in both receiving yards and touchdown receptions, and has found the end zone in five consecutive games.

Oregon vs Michigan Betting Trends