I'm backing Paul Skenes in my MLB same-game parlay today.
We've got a Pirates vs Cubs contest tonight with Paul Skenes vs Kyle Hendricks on the mound. This is a repeat of the matchup that Pittsburgh dreadfully choked just a week ago, so I'm betting on a bounce back.
Check out my full Pirates vs Cubs same-game parlay here:
Pirates vs Cubs Same-Game Parlay Today
Odds from BetMGM
Pirates vs Cubs Same-Game Parlay Pick No. 1: Pirates ML
The Pirates have fallen out of the playoff race, but they’re still 4-4 against the Cubs in the last eight meetings (+.25 units). Crucially, though, this pitching matchup pushes me in Pittsburgh’s direction.
The Pirates are 2-1 against the Cubs with Paul Skenes on the mound this year. The Cubs are 2-1 against the Pirates with Kyle Hendricks on the mound, but he’s allowed 15 total runs to Pittsburgh in those three starts — a competent pitching performance should've gotten at least one more win. Skenes and Hendricks met last week, and the only reason that game didn't go to the Pirates was because of a historic seven-run choke in the late innings by Pittsburgh. No way that happens again, right???
I'll get a little more into the Hendricks vs Skenes matchup below, but that's the big reason I'm backing Pittsburgh in this one.
Pirates vs Cubs Same-Game Parlay Pick No. 2: Tellez O 0.5 Hits
Rowdy Tellez really turned his season around. After a dreadful first two months, the Pirates 1B has hit over .295 in each of the last three months with an OPS over .810 in each of those 30-day stretches. In August he hit .300 with 24 hits in 80 at-bats. Heading into this matchup in particular, Tellez has hits in four of his last five games (seven hits in those five contests, too), as shown by Outlier below:
The key for me here, though, is a Tellez vs Kyle Hendricks matchup. Rowdy has a .364 average and .909 OPS in 22 career at-bats against Hendricks. The Cubs righty has also allowed a 6.75 ERA on the season and let up 15 hits across his last two starts (6.1 total innings).
Pirates vs Cubs Same-Game Parlay Pick No. 3: Skenes O 4.5 Ks
Skenes' main strikeout line is set at 6.5 today, but I'm going to snatch a more conservative alt line OVER to give us a little boost in this parlay.
The reason I'm not touching OVER 6.5 is because Skenes has failed to surpass that mark in four of his last six starts, including last week against these same Cubs. BUT, he has gone over 4.5 in nine of his last 10, averaging 7.3 strikeouts per game in that time. He's gone OVER 4.5 Ks in all three of his starts against Chicago this year.