The 2024-25 English Premier League Golden Boot odds are sure Erling Haaland will repeat as top goalscorer at -650. The odds board is loaded with value after the Norwegian. Specifically looking at last year's Golden Boot runner-up Cole Palmer who's at an insane +5000.
2024-25 English Premier League Golden Boot Odds
Odds as of September 26
2024-25 EPL Golden Boot Favorite
Erling Haaland (Manchester City)
Haaland has won the Golden Boot every year since he joined Man City. With 10 goals already, five more than the next-best player, it's likely that the Norwegian will win another scoring title.
I get that with 33 games left on the season, the field has a lot of time to catch Haaland. But he also has 33 games to continue padding his lead.
Look, with all due respect to Haaland's qualities, he's in the perfect situation. He's got an incredibly creative midfield behind him that can progressively push the ball up the park and into his office (aka the opposition's penalty area).
Savio, Jeremy Doku and Jack Grealish rank third, 10th, and sixth for carries into the penalty area this year. That trio allows Haaland to focus on what he does best; patrolling the penalty area for weaknesses and using his exceptional 50% goal per shot on target rate to put the ball into the net.
Haaland will win his third scoring title.
2024-24 Premier League Golden Boot Value Picks
But at -650 there is no value in betting on Erling Haaland to win this year's scoring race so here are a few bets to find more value.
Mohamed Salah (Liverpool)
The Egyptian King has started the year in glowing form with three goals. With 11 shots on target, you're looking at a pace of 84 over a full season. If the Premier League gives Mohamed "I Score For Fun" Salah that many opportunities he will score a ton.
We're talking about a player with a career 35% goal-to-shot-on-target ratio with Liverpool. If he gets 84 SOT you're looking at about 29 goals from Salah. Haaland won last year's scoring title with 27 goals. If City's striker slows down Salah can catch him.
We've seen Mo win this award before. At +1600 you're looking at a ridiculous $1,600 payout on a $100 bet.
Coel Palmer (Chelsea)
I hope Palmer will start putting the ball in the back of the net more frequently. He's only got two goals this season. Both coming in his last four games.
Before the season began, I picked Palmer as my dark horse candidate to win the goal-scoring title. He might only have two goals but it's not for a lack of trying with 11 shots.
We saw the Chelsea forward score 22 last year and push Haaland for the scoring title. While he's already eight back of the Norwegian, Palmer has another 33 games to catch up. That's plenty of time for a player who scored 1.9 goals above expected last year to fill the net.
Chelsea also has the joint-most goal-creating actions per 90in the league (with City) at 4.20. Expect a lot of those opportunities to fall to Palmer as the season progresses. If he can start converting he'll make up the difference with Haaland soon enough.
Last 10 English Premier League Golden Boot Winners
Per the odds, Haaland and Salah are the two likeliest winners in 2024-25.
Only Thierry Henry has four EPL Golden Boot Awards. Winning this year, Mohamed Salah would become the second player alongside the legendary Frenchman.
But if Haaland wins, he'll join Salah, Alan Shearer, and Harry Kane with three Golden Boots.