We've got a primetime Harbaugh Bowl, with John Harbaugh's Ravens taking on Jim Harbaugh's Chargers.
Baltimore sits as a three-point favorite at Los Angeles, rocking a -154 moneyline price. But, instead of picking between the Harbaugh brothers, I'm banking on the OVER 49.5 total points for this Monday Night Football contest.
I'll break down the complete Ravens vs Chargers Week 12 odds and picks below:
Ravens vs Chargers Odds Week 12
As of November 20th at FanDuel
Ravens vs Chargers Picks Week 12
OVER 49.5 (-115)
Traditionally, I think you'd look at a Jim Harbaugh vs John Harbaugh game and think it'll be a defensive showcase. This week, I'm expecting the points to fly.
We all know what this Ravens offense can do. Baltimore leads the AFC with 30.4 points per game and six of their last seven contests have gone OVER 50 points. But these Chargers are also playing some offensive football lately, too. Los Angeles has scored at least 26 points in each of the last four games, hitting the OVER in each of the last two weeks.
I also think the game script of this contest is going to lead to a high-scoring game. Both Baltimore and Los Angeles are top-eight in rushing yards against this year, holding opposing RBs to UNDER 82 yards per game. This will force both Lamar Jackson and Justin Herbert to air the ball out, moving down the field faster and stopping the clock on incompletions.
Ravens vs Chargers Prop Pick
Will Dissly OVER 39.5 Yards (-115)
Hayden Hurst is hurt, opening up a big role for Chargers TE1 Will Dissly this week. The LA tight end has at least four receptions in five of his last six games, surpassing 40 yards in four of his last five. Last week, Dissly put up 80 yards and his first touchdown of the season.
This week, against the Ravens, Dissly has a shot to stay hot. Baltimore is one of the worst defenses in football against tight ends, allowing the second-most yards to the position (736 in 11 games). The Ravens have allowed over 40 yards to an opposing tight end in four of the last five games.
Ravens vs Chargers Betting Trends
- The Ravens are 6-3 against the spread in their last nine road games
- The Ravens are 8-3 straight up in their last 11 road games
- The UNDER has hit in 19 of the Chargers' last 25 games
- Derrick Henry has a touchdown in 12-straight games (He's -188 at Bet365 to score this weekend)
These betting trends are courtesy of Outlier's NFL Insights: