It was a jubilant celebration on the final green last season when Nick Taylor became the first Canadian in 69 years to win his home country’s national open. And now here comes big, bad Rory McIlroy, ready to spoil the party like a fly in the poutine.
Because for all the focus on the locals, McIlroy is the overwhelming odds favorite for a reason in this week’s RBC Canadian Open—he’s won two of the three times he’s participated in event, and dusted the field by seven shots the last time it was at Hamilton Golf and Country Club, where it returns this week. McIlroy finished T12 in his most recent start, the PGA Championship, and won at Charlotte and New Orleans (the latter with Shane Lowry in a team event) in his two previous outings before that.
McIlroy is one of six players in the top 30 of the Official World Golf Rankings entered in the Canadian Open, along with Sahith Theegala, Tommy Fleetwood, Tom Kim, Sam Burns and defending champion Taylor. Fleetwood lost to Taylor in a playoff last season, while Lowry has been top 10 in this tournament in two of its past three editions—including a T2 behind McIlroy in 2019, the last time the event was played in Hamilton.
RBC Canadian Open Odds
Odds as of May 28
RBC Canadian Open Best Bets
Rory McIlroy to Win (+350)
Predictable? Yes. Boring? Completely. But the only logical pick to win this event? Unfortunately so, given the relative lack of value involved. But who else? It’s tough to take a guy like Fleetwood who’s never won a PGA Tour event, or one of the Canadians given the last time they went back-to-back in this tournament was 1913-14. Theegala is a fantastic young player, but can he close out someone like Rory? We’re not sure. So we’re going chalk, with the highest-ranked player in an event where his average career finish is a ridiculous 3.7.
Tommy Fleetwood Top 5 Finish (+380)
Fleetwood has such a lovely game, and such a wonderful mental outlook on golf, it’s a shame the guy doesn’t win more often. He came close in Canada last year, losing on the fourth playoff hole after Taylor made eagle from 72 feet. But that yoke of zero PGA Tour victories for his career remains in place, and makes him a tough player to back as outright winner. But a top-five would do just fine, thank you, given that Fleetwood has played very well entering this week (T13 in Charlotte, T3 at the Masters, T10 at the Genesis) and has been solo second and T6 in two career Canadian Open appearances.
Taylor Pendrith Top 10 Finish (+525)
No question, odds are against the Canadians going back-to-back in this tournament for the first time in over a century. But the host nation still has five players in the top 70 of the world rankings, among them Pendrith, who won the CJ Cup Byron Nelson (a non-Signature PGA Tour event) in early May. That victory in Texas was one of four straight top-11 finishes for the Ontarian, who was also T10 at Quail Hollow. While Pendrith’s 2024 season has been very up and down—he missed the cut in five of six events early on—he’s been far more consistent of late, and his good results have been very good.
PGA Tour RBC Canadian Open Betting Tips
As always in this tournament, there’s lots of focus on the Canadian contingent, two of which have won elsewhere this season—Pendrith in the Byron Nelson, and Taylor in the Phoenix Open. All of the top Canadian players have had their moments, with Corey Conners finishing T13 at The Players and the Wells Fargo, Adam Hadwin placing T4 at the Genesis, and Mackenzie Hughes finishing T3 at Innisbrook. But they’ve also all been quite inconsistent; for example, Taylor, the highest-ranked of the bunch, has gone T64, MC, T49, T43, MC in his past five individual events.
Hadwin finished sixth and Hughes T14 in the most recent Canadian Open at Hamilton, which has undergone a complete renovation since its last stint as host in 2019. Lowry is coming off a T6 at the PGA Championship at Valhalla, which due to its passive setup will likely prove to be an easier layout than what players will see this week. The 26-year-old Theegala, meanwhile, is still learning how to close strong—he finished 82-72 at Quail Hollow, and posted a final-round 72 at a PGA Championship where almost everyone else was scoring at will.
Value prospects at the RBC Canadian Open include veteran Swedish player Alex Noren, whose last three tournaments have produced a T12 at the PGA, a T24 at the Wells Fargo, and a solo third at the Byron Nelson. Aaron Rai has been T3 and T13 in Canada the past two years, and has a pair of top-10s in non-Signature events this season. And rookie Mac Meissner (he’s American, not Canadian) is in the midst of a nice run that’s netted a T13 in the alternate-field tournament in Myrtle Beach and a T5 at the Charles Schwab Challenge last week.