The first Battle of Ontario of the season is set for tonight with the Ottawa Senators facing the Toronto Maple Leafs at Scotiabank Arena. Toronto is -130 home favorites per BET99 with Ottawa given +110 odds.
Even though the OVER hasn't hit in Toronto's last six games I'm taking OVER 6 goals tonight at -105 from BET99 with a strong Ottawa offense in town.
Senators vs Maple Leafs Odds
Odds as of November 12 at BET99
Senators vs Maple Leafs Picks
OVER 6 Goals (-105) at BET99
Toronto has been great defensively lately, with an average of 1.5 goals against in its last six games, so going 0-5-1 against the OVER is no surprise. However, in those six games, only one opponent is ranked in the top half for offense (Minnesota); the rest are bottom dwellers offensively.
Unlike most of the Leafs' recent opposition, Ottawa isn't weak offensively holding the 11th-best offense record in the league with 3.43 goals per game, that average is up with 3.7 goals over their last 12 games. Captain Brady Tkachuk leads Ottawa goalscorers with eight twine-ticklers on the year, you can get Tkachuk at +130 to score at any time from BET99.
Just like Ottawa, Toronto's offense is scoring freely with 3.7 goals over their last three games, even without Auston Matthews in the lineup. Mitch Marner is stepping up to fill the Matthews void with two goals and six points over the Leafs' last three games, BET99 has OVER 1.5 points for Marner at +150.
Despite the UNDER hitting in five of the Leafs' last six games, I'm sticking with the OVER thanks to Ottawa's offensive abilities.
Senators vs Maple Leafs Player Prop
Claude Giroux OVER 1.5 Shots (-170) at BET99
Per Outlier, Claude Giroux has hit OVER 1.5 shots on net in 10 straight games, I have no doubt that will continue tonight against the Leafs.
My conviction stems from the Leafs allowing the seventh-most shots from left-wingers like Giroux at 6.19 shots per game and that Giroux is third on the Sens for shots with 30 (2.14 per game), not to mention that Giroux has hit OVER 1.5 shots in six of his eight games against the Leafs as a member of the Senators, averaging 3.4 shots per game.
The veteran Ottawa native is perfectly positioned to get at least two shots on net tonight.
Senators vs Maple Leafs Betting Trends
- The Sens are 1-4SU in their last five road games and 4-9SU when playing in Toronto. Taking the Leafs at -130 from BET99 might not be a bad bet.
- Ottawa is 11-5 against the puckline in their last 16 road games. BET99 has the Sens +1.5 puckline at -225.
- Tim Stutzle has no goals in 10 of his last 12 games. His anytime goal odds are +265 at BET99 if you think he breaks that goal-scoring funk.