Patrick Mahomes has won back-to-back Super Bowl MVPs, becoming the first player to do so since Terry Bradshaw way back in Super Bowl 13 & 14. Mahomes becomes just the third player in NFL history to win three Super Bowl MVP Trophies, joining Tom Brady and Joe Montana.
Mahomes has led the Chiefs to the NFL's first back-to-back Super Bowl titles since the New England Patriots in 2003-2004. Kansas City becomes just the fourth team in NFL history to win three Super Bowls in five years.
Super Bowl 58 MVP Odds
Super Bowl 58 MVP Best Bet: Patrick Mahomes (+135)
Can you really afford to bet against Patrick Mahomes to win Super Bowl 58 MVP? The feel of inevitability as we enter Super Bowl week is almost palpable.
While the Chiefs are +110 to win the Super Bowl, you can find value on Mahomes at +135 odds to win MVP. He played mistake-free football against Baltimore in the AFC Championship, tossing for 241 yards and a touchdown, while expertly side-stepping the Ravens vaunted pass-rush. The NFL playoffs are Mahomes playground, and everybody else is just playing for second. The Texas Tech product has completed 70% of his passes for 11 touchdowns without throwing an interception in his last six playoff games. That's the longest streak ever by a starting quarterback without throwing an interception in NFL playoff history.
Mahomes also has more help than ever before. Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has put together the best stop-unit of the Mahomes era. Kansas City's defense is more prepared than ever to limit the effectiveness of San Francisco's high-flying offense, and allowing Mahomes to go to work. Andy Reid is also a wizard coming off of a bye week. In fact, Reid's an unreal 31-SU and 23-15 ATS after a bye during his head coaching career. He's perhaps the greatest offensive mind in the history of the sport, and has the greatest quarterback in the NFL under center. Moreover, as demonstrated by his 11 catch, 116-yard, one touchdown performance in the AFC Championship game, the Mahomes-Kelce connection remains the NFL's most formidable offensive force. You can't afford to bet against Mahomes.
Value Pick: Christian McCaffrey (+450)
Lost in the sauce of some phenomenal postseason play, Christian McCaffrey has dominated. The Niners running back has decimated defenses with 260 total yards and four touchdowns en route to Super Bowl 58.
He saw 24 touches against both the Packers and Lions, and will undoubtedly be the centerpiece of the 49ers offensive attack. Remember, the 49ers running backs Raheem Mostert and Tevin Coleman combined for 86 rushing yards and a touchdown in Super Bowl 54. All respect to those players, and the unbelievable season Mostert had this year, but neither are on McCaffrey's level.
Kyle Shanahan has to be chomping at the bit to unleash his prized addition on the the Chiefs defense. Remember, the last time these two teams squared off, in Week 7 of the 2022 season, was McCaffrey's first game in scarlet red and metallic gold. You can bet he'll see a ton of touches early, and be the centrepiece of nearly every 49ers scoring drive. If the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 58, Christian McCaffrey will play a massive part. He also has Super Bowl pedigree in his blood, as Ed McCaffrey caught 8 passes for 122 yards in three Super Bowl appearances in the 1990s.
Super Bowl MVP Deep Sleeper: Isiah Pacheco (+3500)
While Patrick Mahomes was been unconscious through his last six playoff games, Isiah Pacheco is the engine that makes the Kansas City Chiefs offense go. He's seen at least 20 touchdes in every playoff game this year, and have averaged 90 rushing yards per contest in his playoff career.
San Francisco's rushing defense has struggled of late, allowing 132 yards per game in the playoffs. The 49ers ranked just 15th in rushing defense DVOA this season, after finishing first and second the previous two years.
Moreover, Pacheco's scored a touchdown in four straight games. If the Chiefs win this game, rest assured Pacheco will play a massive role. With the 49ers deadset on limiting the otherworldly skills of Mahomes, the Rutgers product could prove to be the dominant factor in Super Bowl 58. No running back has taken home the Super Bowl MVP Trophy since Terrell Davis in Super Bowl 32. But, Pacheco is the Chiefs hammer
Super Bowl MVP Has Belonged To Quarterbacks
Despite a busted ankle and a halftime deficit, Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes rallied the Kansas City offense and led a comeback over the Eagles to win his second Lombardi Trophy. With 182 passing yards and three passing touchdowns, Mahomes earned a ring and his second Super Bowl MVP. Mahomes became the first player since Kurt Warner in 1999 to win NFL MVP and Super Bowl MVP in the same season.
Examining the latest Super Bowl MVP odds above, sportsbooks expect another QB to win the award, with nine of the top 10 lowest odds. History tells us they’re likely to be right.
Super Bowl MVP Betting Trends
- Quarterbacks have won the award in six of the last ten Super Bowls & three of the last four
- New England Patriots receiver Julian Edelman is the largest longshot to win Super Bowl MVP over the last 20 seasons, at +2200 odds
- Eight wide receivers have won Super Bowl MVP, with two of those coming in the last five years
- Four of the last seven Super Bowl MVP's have had odds of +187 or lower
- Von Miller, Malcolm Smith, and Dexter Jackson are the only defensive players to win Super Bowl MVP over the last 20 years
- Quarterbacks have won 32 Super Bowl MVPs
- Seven running backs have been awarded Super Bowl MVP
- Four linebackers have won the award
- Only two safeties and defensive ends have taken home the Super Bowl MVP trophy