Here’s the matchup of ranked SEC teams that nobody saw coming: No. 5 Texas visiting No. 25 Vanderbilt on Saturday afternoon. The Longhorns are 18.5-point favorites in Nashville, where they’ll try to shake off last week’s loss to Georgia while the Commodores aim for another upset of a highly-ranked foe.

After blitzing its preconference slate, Texas is 1-2 ATS in its first three SEC games, most recently suffering a 30-15 home loss to the Bulldogs as a 3.5-point home favorite. Vanderbilt meanwhile has covered double-digit spreads in all three of its SEC games thus far, winning two of those outright—including its world-shaking 40-35 victory over then-No. 1 Alabama on Oct. 5.

Texas vs Vanderbilt Odds

Odds as of October 22 from BetMGM

Texas vs Vanderbilt Picks – Week 9

The Longhorns are picking up the pieces after a loss to Georgia that wasn’t as close as the final score, and raised real questions about whether Texas can contend physically with elite SEC teams along the line of scrimmage. And Texas’ early-season schedule turned out to be weaker than anticipated—wins over Michigan and Oklahoma lost serious luster after those teams were handled by Illinois and South Carolina respectively last week.

In hindsight, then, the Longhorns proved woefully unprepared for the speeding red-and-white train that leveled them last Saturday night. Now, what does that portend against Vanderbilt? The Commodores have been in every game they’ve played this season against FBS opponents, which has translated into outright wins against Alabama, Kentucky and Virginia Tech, a close scrape last week against 27-point underdog Ball State, and a head-scratching outright loss at Georgia State.

But overall, the Commodores are 4-2 ATS against FBS foes, covering against every power-conference team they’ve played thus far. As it showed against Alabama, Vanderbilt has some surprising physicality in the trenches and a swaggering quarterback in Diego Pavia who has a knack for making big plays. Can they do to Texas what Georgia did last week? Probably not. But every betting trend we see screams that this point spread is too big. 

Texas vs Vanderbilt Week 9 Pick: Vanderbilt +18.5 (-108)

The days of rolling up points on the likes of Texas-San Antonio and Louisiana-Monroe are over for the Longhorns, who have gone UNDER in all three SEC games thus far—including against Mississippi State, the worst team in the league. Vandy has played both shootouts and grinders, but has also gone UNDER in two straight. We’ll stick with those trends Saturday.

Texas vs Vanderbilt Week 9 Pick: UNDER 53.5 (-110)

*picks made as of Tuesday, October 22 at 10:00 am ET

Texas vs Vanderbilt News

Longhorns safety Andrew Mukuba is questionable for the Vanderbilt game with a knee injury suffered last weekend against Georgia, Texas coach Steve Sarkisian told reporters Monday in Austin. Texas is already thin in the defensive backfield due to a season-ending knee injury suffered by safety Derek Williams against Oklahoma. Sarkisian also indicated that starting quarterback Quinn Ewers may still be feeling the effects of the oblique injury that kept him out for two games.

Texas vs Vanderbilt Prop Bet: Vanderbilt +10.5 First Half (-118)

The Commodores have led all three of their SEC games so far at the half, including 23-14 over Alabama. In that context, this first-half line looks like a huge one for a Texas team that led Mississippi State only 14-6 at the break at home.

Texas vs Vanderbilt Betting Trends