The PGA Tour makes its way to the continental United States for the first time this year for the 2024 American Express. An unorthodox tournament on the PGA Tour, the American Express will utilize a three-course rotation and a 54-hole cut. After a two-week stint in Hawaii that produced back-to-back longshot winners, this week could present yet another opportunity for an unlikely champion to emerge.
If they are to do so, these unlikely winners will have to get past world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler. Scheffler enjoyed a great opening to his calendar year with a T-5 finish at The Sentry. The Texan held the 36-hole lead heading into the weekend before his putter regressed and so did his name on the leaderboard.
The American is joined by a litany of his Ryder Cup teammates in Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas, Sam Burns and Wyndham Clark. Cantlay, Schauffele and Thomas are among those listed below +2000 despite not entering the winner’s circle last season. The field is rounded out by a strong international contingent as well with Sungjae Im, Tom Kim, Min Woo Lee and Jason Day playing.
Who Is Favored To Win The American Express?
Odds as of January 17
2024 American Express Betting Picks
Scottie Scheffler To Win +550
It has been nearly 10 months since Scheffler has won on the PGA Tour as his most recent trophy raise came at the 2023 Players Championship. During this span, he has put up absurd numbers from tee to green while struggling on the greens. If there was ever a spot for him to find his groove with the putter, the American Express should be it as he has a strong history around Palm Springs.
He has totaled three top 25s, including a podium finish in his debut while performing well on the greens. Over the last 12 months, Scheffler ranks first in total strokes gained, first in strokes gained tee-to-green, first in strokes gained approach and fifth in strokes gained around the green among those in this field.
Sam Burns to Win +3000
This is the type of field and tournament where Burns has found success throughout his career. While not quite a top-tier event, the American Express features some of the best players in the world and will get a player like Burns up for the challenge.
The LSU product ranks 11th in this field in total strokes gained over the last 12 months thanks to strong efforts off the tee and on the greens. He gained throughout the bag in his season debut at The Sentry and should be primed for this week’s birdie fest. In four starts, Burns has finishes of T-18, T-6 and T-11 to his credit.
Stephan Jaeger To Win +7000
Jaeger went to work this offseason and added significant distance off the tee. Because of this, it may take some time for him to adjust his approach play, but if it shows up in Palm Springs, he should love his chances.
Over the last 12 months, the German ranks 12th in strokes gained tee-to-green, 19th in strokes gained off the tee and 14th in strokes gained around the green. He has not missed a cut since the RBC Heritage in April 2023 and is just a solid putting performance away from contending for his first victory on the PGA Tour.
Beau Hossler To Win +7500
Hossler was the best player on the PGA Tour during the FedEx Cup Fall and was rewarded by gaining entry into the fields of the first two signature events of 2024.
He will be using this week as a tune up for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, but Hossler may just stumble into a victory along the way. The Texas product ranks ninth in total strokes gained, 12th in strokes gained tee-to-green, 20th in strokes gained approach and 17th in strokes gained putting over the last three months.
He will need to get over some late-round jitters as he struggled to close tournaments like the Shriners Children’s Open and the Zozo Championship during the fall, but those experiences should eventually give way for his first win on the PGA Tour.
Sungjae Im Top-20 Finish +110
There is a case to be made that Im is the most underrated golfer in the world at the moment. The South Korean arrives at PGA West having just broken the PGA Tour record for most birdies in a single tournament with 34 and that should translate to additional success this week.
Im is a perfect 5-for-5 connecting on top-20 finishes at the American Express and has a great opportunity to improve on his track record given his recent run of play. Over the last 12 months, he ranks fifth in total strokes gained, seventh in strokes gained tee-to-green and eighth in strokes gained around the green.
Patrick Cantlay Top-10 Finish +115
Cantlay has done everything but win over the last year. During this frame, he ranks second in strokes gained total, second in strokes gained tee-to-green, second in strokes gained off the tee, sixth in strokes gained approach and seventh in strokes gained around the green.
While he has struggled to cross the finish line, Cantlay hasn’t struggled to finish inside the top 10. He cashed 10 top-10 finishes in 2023 and should add his first of the season this week at the American Express where a pair of top 10s sandwiched a runner-up finish in 2021.