Portland has been money for backers since February 13, covering seven straight spreads and going 20-7 ATS since December 30. The Trail Blazers’ next obstacle is laying 5.5 points on the road tonight to the Memphis Grizzlies and the No. 1 scoring defense in the NBA. The total for this game opened at 216 and early betting is on the UNDER.
Standout Stats
- Memphis’ leading scorer Mike Conley is questionable to play tonight. For a low-scoring team, 20 points per game is difficult to replace. Jaren Jackson and Kyle Anderson remain out as well.
- Portland and Memphis have played twice this year. Both games went UNDER 200 points with an average combined score of 183.0. Let me do the math for you – that’s 33 points below tonight’s Sportsbook total.
- The O/U is 16-23 in Portland’s games vs the Western Conference while it’s 11-29 in the same spot for Memphis. The Grizzlies have the NBA’s slowest pace at 96.6 possessions per game while Portland is ranked in the bottom half of the league (18th) in this stat as well.
- Memphis is ranked 30th in the NBA with 102.1 points scored in its last 15 games but is ranked No. 1 in opponents’ points per game at 102.6. With these numbers plus the history between these teams, I’m stunned that the total is so high tonight. The total in each of the first two meetings was 201.5.
- The 91 points per game that Portland is averaging vs Memphis is its lowest vs any team. Boston at 98.5 is the only other team to keep the Blazers below 100 on average. The 92 points per game scored by the Grizzlies are the fewest by any team vs Portland this year.
- Memphis, the league’s lowest-scoring team, has had its lowest-scoring games against Portland.
- The Grizzlies are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games but are 12-6 ATS on home court vs Western Conference teams. Memphis has covered the spread in its last three games in this spot, all since January 28.
- Portland has been a road favorite of 5.5 points or more just three times this season and is 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS. The Blazers covered as a 9-point favorite in Cleveland on February 25 and as an 8.5-point favorite in Phoenix on January 24, and failed to cover 7 points in a 118-114 win over the Knicks on November 20.
My Pick for Trail Blazers vs Grizzlies
UNDER 217
The numbers don’t add up to these teams playing to more than 217 points. Their styles, pace and personnel, combined with the history this season, point to the smart bet being UNDER.
If you’re more inclined to pick a side, the Trail Blazers have been a phenomenal bet and riding them can’t be considered a bad call at this point.