Just one tournament separates players from the first major championship of the season. The 2024 Valero Texas Open is set to be the final tune up for competitors as they search for form at TPC San Antonio before making the trip to Augusta National Golf Club.
Headlining the action is the man who is still searching for the highly coveted green jacket, Rory McIlroy. The four-time major champion is the betting favorite at +1000 and arrives in Texas without much form to speak of.
2024 Valero Texas Open Odds
Odds as of April 2
While he does of four top 25s in a row, McIlroy has yet to contend on the PGA Tour this season and hopes for a spark around this golf course. McIlroy last played the Valero Texas Open in 2022 where he missed the cut before finishing runner-up the next week at the Masters for his best finish.
Joining McIlroy is Ludvig Aberg at +1100. The young Swede is the only other player below +2000 and is riding a wave of momentum into this golf tournament. Fresh off a top 10 at the Players Championship, Aberg hopes to keep a good thing going.
On the other end of the spectrum are players like Jordan Spieth, Collin Morikawa and Max Homa. All fantastic golfers, these three have been without their best stuff in the early stages of the season and aim to find something before vying for the green jacket in a week’s time.
2024 Valero Texas Open Betting Picks
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Ludvig Aberg To Win (+1100): This is a fantastic spot for Aberg who is more than equipped to take on the challenge that is golf in Texas.
Playing his college golf in the Lone Star State, Aberg should feel right at home at TPC San Antonio. He arrives ranking second in total strokes gained, sixth in strokes gained tee-to-green, 11th in strokes gained off the tee and 10th in strokes gained approach over the last three months.
One of the best drivers of the golf ball in the field, the young Swede’s big stick will allow his newly revamped iron play to shine. Coming off a top 10 at the Players Championship and Farmers Insurance Open as well as a runner-up finish at the shortened Pebble Beach Pro-Am, Aberg is primed to return to the winner’s circle this week.
Max Homa To Win (+2500): The six-time PGA Tour winner hasn’t been stellar so far this year, but he appears to be close.
Coming off a two-tournament stretch where he finished T-16 at the Genesis Invitational and T-8 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, Homa is starting to find his stride with his iron play. I expect those clubs to cooperate this week at TPC San Antonio, but the driver must be better. Adding more distance by the week, Homa has lost a hair of accuracy and handcuffed his iron play ever so slightly.
He ranks 13th in this field in total strokes gained and inside the top 30 in strokes gained approach, around the green and putting. If the driver returns to historical levels this week, Homa’s game is in perfect shape.
Alex Noren To Win (+3000): The veteran has started to play some really good golf over the last few weeks. Noren comes into Texas riding three straight top 20s that includes a T-9 finish at PGA National, T-19 at the Players Championship and T-11 at the Houston Open.During this span, Noren has gotten the entirety of his golf bag to cooperate gaining strokes in all aspects of the game.
He hasn’t done anything necessarily special, but he has been wildly consisting of ranking fifth in total strokes gained and inside the top 40 of each strokes-gained category among those in the field over the last three months. A top-20 finisher at this tournament in his only appearance, Noren should love his chances to knock off a long-awaited first win on the PGA Tour.
Russell Henley To Win (+4500): Any golf course where Corey Conners has won twice should be perfect for Henley.
Possessing a very similar skillset as the two-time winner, Henley should thrive at a place where there is an emphasis on putting the ball in the fairway and strong iron play. Henley hasn’t been great this year ranking 17th in total strokes gained and 23rd in driving accuracy, but this is usually the time of year he starts to get going.
His short game has carried the load thus far ranking inside the top 20 both around the green and putting and should the iron play return to normal levels, he should love his position. A top-five finisher at the Arnold Palmer Invitational last month, Henley has proven in recent weeks that he has the game to contend on the big stage.
Keith Mitchell To Win (+6000): Few players are hitting the golf ball better than Mitchell at the moment. He ranks fourth in strokes gained tee to green, fifth in strokes gained off the tee and third in strokes gained approach over the last three months.
The short game has let him down, but he has still been able to shoot his way into contention most recently at the Valspar Championship where he held the 54-hole lead before imploding on Sunday. With five top-20 finishes already to his name, Mitchell is ready to take that next leap forward and grab his second career victory on the PGA Tour.