The 2020 U.S. presidential election is on everyone’s mind today as election day has finally arrived. One issue that has been top of mind in the news, and with online sportsbooks, is the number of people at the polls and election voter turnout odds.
The best political betting sites have monitored the early voting habits of U.S. citizens and have released two new props to bet on for election voter turnout with an OVER or UNDER option. Bettors can wager on an O/U of 149.5 million votes cast or on a turnout percentage at 60.5 percent.
For reference, if election voter turnout for the 2020 U.S. presidential race ends up going OVER 60.5 percent, that would be the highest on record since 1968, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
These are just some of the political betting props available at sportsbooks and Odds Shark has them all listed for you here with our U.S. Presidential Props page.
For now, let’s break down the election voter turnout odds with each prop:
What Will Be The Voter Turnout for 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
Odds as of November 3 at Sportsbook
Odds as of November 3 at Sportsbook
O/U For Election Voter Turnout
For election voter turnout odds, oddsmakers are implying an OVER is coming for the actual number of people to cast a ballot with -600 odds (85.7 percent implied probability). To put that figure of 149.5 million voters into perspective, that would smash the results of the 2016 election, in which 138.8 million votes were cast, representing a turnout among eligible voters of 55.5 percent.
The two main factors at play when considering why the OVER 149.5 million votes could hit are mail-in voting options and the heightened awareness of the 2020 vote. Some people who were perhaps reluctant to wait in line to cast a ballot likely took advantage of the mail-in option and most states are reporting results in the millions for mail-in ballots.
The other factor is the stakes. The Democrats and Republicans have been promoting the 2020 election as a make-or-break vote for the country, which has likely inspired some constituents to exercise their democratic right for the first time in their lives.
O/U for Voter Turnout Percentage
The second prop on election voter turnout odds focuses on turnout percentage with OVER 60.5 percent at -400 and UNDER 60.5 percent at +250. According to the 2019 population data from the U.S. Census Bureau, there are over 255 million eligible voters for the 2020 U.S. presidential election. That’s why taking the OVER for this prop may not be as cut-and-dried as it looks.
In order for the OVER 60.5 percent to hit, that means there would need to be more than 155 million votes cast by the 255 million voters eligible to go to the polls. That would smash the all-time record number of votes cast and be the highest voter turnout percentage since 1968. In fact, back in 2008 when it seems political awareness was at an all-time high during Barack Obama’s “Yes We Can” campaign, that election only yielded a 57.5 percent voter turnout, which was the highest turnout since 1968.
Another factor that seems to have been glossed over has to do with the mail-in ballots. Some states have reported spoiled ballots in the hundreds of thousands for minor things like an improper signature or lack of witness, which may curb a person’s willingness to go through the process again.
Historical data, wait times at the polls and the issues with mail-in voting may hurt bettors’ chances taking the OVER 60.5 percent prop in election voter turnout betting. Especially when you’re wagering on something to happen that hasn’t come to fruition in over 40 years.