Let's look at World Series betting trends, as we've waited all year for the Fall Classic, and I'd hate to make the wrong plays in this final series of the MLB season.
Below, I've laid out a mix of historical and 2024 WS trends, starting with the Dodgers' remarkable run-scoring ability.
2024 World Series Betting Trends
The Dodgers Are 9-1-1 On The OVER
After a wimpy start to the postseason, the Dodgers have gone crazy, averaging over six runs per game, alongside 20 homers in 11 contests. L.A. erupted in the NLCS, cashing six consecutive OVERs, as Tommy Edman and Shohei Ohtani stepped up their game.
For the World Series, I envision another swath of runs. The Dodgers offense is hot, but I'm not so sure the club's run prevention is sustainable. It's a lot to ask for three or more bullpen days in the World Series, and New York's lineup simply outhit Cleveland (in the clutch) during the ALCS. I also don't have much faith in Carlos Rodon or Gerrit Cole, who have looked a tad shaky during this postseason.
Betting Favorite Has Won Six of the last 10 World Series
I'll note this quickly, as it is not a crazy decisive trend. The Dodgers entered this World Series as narrow favorites and are looking to continue this trend.
Notable underdogs to win the World Series include the 2021 Atlanta Braves (+120), the 2019 Nationals (+195), and the 2015 Kansas City Royals (-105).
Eight of The Last 10 World Series Have Gone Six Games Or More
The Rangers' rout of the D-backs last season is an exception, but eight of the last ten World Series showdowns have gone at least six games. It's a hard thing to put a club away early in the World Series, so keep this in mind for series price betting.
It appears that sportsbooks, like FanDuel, are privy to this trend, as FanDuel offers the OVER 5.5 total games at -180. That's still a fine bet, but it doesn't represent killer value.
World Series MVP: The Chalk Rarely Wins
Corey Seager won the 2023 World Series MVP as the chalk, but he represents just one of two players in the last 10 seasons to win the award as the favorite heading into the series (the other is 2014 Madison Bumgarner).
This season, Ohtani is favored at FanDuel, with +230 odds to win the World Series MVP, followed by Aaron Judge at +500. Now, we haven't seen a player of Ohtani's talents in the World Series maybe ever, but it's worth noting the parity within this award race over the last decade.
Personally, I love some value further down the board, such as Giancarlo Stanton (+950) or Tommy Edman (+3300). Steve Pearce pulled off the biggest longshot win during out aforementioned span, winning World Series MVP with the Red Sox in 2018 at +5500 odds.